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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Pinellas County is Donald Trump Country; David Jolly beating Crist?

20

June

It's wise to take any "internal campaign polling memo" released by a campaign with more than a few grains of salt, but at least two things jump out of a newly released memo from the David Jolly campaign based on June 1-2 polling in south Pinellas' Congressional District 13:

1. That David Jolly would have a double digit lead over Democrat Charlie Crist in a safe Democratic district is hard to believe. Yes, Republican Jack Latvala says other internal polls had shown Jolly leading Crist, but 12 points? Seems highly suspect. For what it's worth, the Crist campaign paid for a Public Policy Polling robo poll June 6-7, that showed Crist leading Jolly 46 percent to 43 percent, which in itself is bad news for Crist given the numbers in that district.

2. That Donald Trump is trailing Hillary Clinton in that district by just one point, 44 percent to 43 percent-- a district that Barack Obama won by nearly 11 percentage points! This is actually not so hard to buy, given the polling that Latvala has seen and Democratic polls of legislative races in south Pinellas. The bellwhether county of Pinellas (Volusia too, by the way) is one of the main areas of Florida where the Clinton campaign knows they have work to do.

Here's that full Jolly campaign memo:

TO: Friends of David Jolly

FROM: Jim McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE: Florida Congressional District 13 Survey Results

Date: June 17th, 2016

Key Takeaways:

 David Jolly has a 12-point lead over Charlie Crist, 50% to 38%, with 12% undecided.

Now, if the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote among the

following candidates?

(Candidates Rotated)

Vote: Congress

David Jolly 50%

Charlie Crist 38%

Undecided 12%

 David Jolly has a greater than three to one net positive opinion rating, 46% favorable to 
just 13% unfavorable. In contrast, a plurality of voters has a negative impression of 
Charlie Crist, 37% favorable to 41% unfavorable.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (David Jolly/Charlie Crist)?

(Names Rotated)

Jolly Crist

Total Favorable 46% 37%

Total Unfavorable 13% 41%

No Opinion 23% 16%

Never Heard Of 18% 7%

FAV.-UNFAV. +33 -4

 The presidential race is a statistical tie, with Hillary Clinton currently holding a one-point 
lead over Donald Trump.

Now, if the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote among the 
following candidates?

(Candidates Rotated)

Vote: President

Donald Trump 43%

Hillary Clinton 44%

Someone Else 7%

Undecided 6%

BOTTOM LINE:

David Jolly is well-positioned to win this race. Jolly is quite popular with voters and he has significantly higher favorable ratings than Charlie Crist. Even though this seat has become somewhat more Democratic, David Jolly appears to be the best candidate to keep this seat in Republican hands.

Full Methodology and Demographic Summary on Next Page:

__________________________________________________________________

919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 400 registered voters in Florida’s 
Thirteenth Congressional District on June 1st and 2nd, 2016. All interviews were conducted via 
telephone by professional interviewers. To increase coverage, 30% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by city, race, age, gender and party to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous presidential-year elections. This poll of 400 registered voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and refusal rates.

Demographic Summary:

Party Total 
Republican 38
Democrat 41 
NPA/Other 19

Race Total
White 76%
Black 13%
Hispanic 5%
Asian 1%
Other 4%

Age Total
Under 40 22%
41-55 29%
56-65 22%
Over 65 25%
Gender Total

Male 45%
Female 55%

Area Total
Clearwater 19%
St. Petersburg 42%
Largo 15%

Inner 14%
Coastal 10%

[Last modified: Monday, June 20, 2016 9:43pm]

    

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