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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Poll: Clinton has 48 percent more support among Hispanic voters than Trump



A new poll out from Florida Atlantic University shows that Hillary Clinton has doubled her support among Hispanic voters throughout the nation, now with a 48 percent lead over Donald Trump. The poll also shows that Hispanics continue to view Clinton as better than Trump for the economy overall (62.5 to 23 percent) and keeping them safe from terrorism (56.2 percent to 22.9 percent).

As we've reported, Hispanics could make the difference this election cycle with the number of eligible voters reaching a record 27.3 million, an increase of more than 19 percent since the 2012 elections. In Florida, Hispanic voters now make up 17 percent, or 2 million, of the state's 12.2 million voters and it is the fastest growing demographic group in Florida. 

Monica Escaleras, FAU's Business and Economics Polling Initiative, attributes Clinton's status to her ability to appeal to undecided voters and to winning over 5 percent of the Hispanic voters who sided with Trump during the university's last survey in May. 

Here's the release:



Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump nationally by 48 percent among Hispanics – nearly twice the 26 percent margin she held in May – and has greatly increased her favorability rating, according to a new national survey by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI).

Clinton was the choice of 66 percent of respondents, while 18 percent chose Trump and 15 percent were undecided. Among Hispanic Democrats, Clinton leads 85 percent to 6 percent, while Independents and others favor her 55 percent to 17 percent. Trump leads among Hispanic GOP voters 56 percent to 31 percent. Clinton is winning the female Hispanic vote 68 percent to 14 percent, as well as male Hispanics, who favor her 64 percent to 23 percent.

Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI, said Clinton has made significant inroads among Hispanics and is closing in on achieving the level of support U.S. President Barack Obama received during his 2012 reelection over Republican nominee Mitt Romney when Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Obama (71 to 27 percent).

“Clinton has taken some major strides to increase her support among Hispanics,” Escaleras said. “Her efforts to win over many who said they were undecided a couple of months ago are paying off, while Trump has actually seen his support drop by more than 5 percent.”

Hispanics continue to view Clinton as better than Trump for the economy overall (62.5 to 23 percent) and keeping them safe from terrorism (56.2 percent to 22.9 percent).

            “Clinton's support with Hispanics is growing in our polling,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative. “That makes it increasingly difficult for Trump in battleground states such as Florida or Colorado where Hispanic voters may be the difference.”

            Clinton has increased her favorable rating by more than 12 points since May, from 41.6 to 53.8 percent, while also decreasing her unfavorable rating from 31 to 25.5 percent. Trump, meanwhile, has seen his numbers go in the opposite direction, with his favorable rating dropping four points since May, from 21.8 to 17.8 percent, while his unfavorable rating increased from 60.8 to 67.6 percent. Trump’s numbers are even underwater among Hispanic Republicans, who give the GOP nominee a 47 percent unfavorable rating and a 42 percent favorable rating.

            BEPI’s monthly Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index dropped five points from an all-time high of 105.8 in June to 100.8 in July. “Consumers are a bit less optimistic in July compared to June,” Escaleras said. “This decline can be due to uncertainties in the national economy, global economy and the presidential election.”

The poll was conducted nationally July 1-31. The polling sample consisted of 500 Hispanics with a margin of error of +/- 4.33 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

[Last modified: Thursday, August 4, 2016 10:40am]


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