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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Poll shows Jeb Bush in contention in New Hampshire



Several recent polls show Jeb Bush is gaining traction in New Hampshire, a state he's focused on heavily to propel him back into contention. Today, a new Suffolk University poll shows Bush in a very close fourth and edging Marco Rubio.

Trump - 27

Cruz - 12

Kasich - 12

Bush - 11

Rubio - 10

Christie - 6

Twelve percent of likely Republican primary voters were undecided. From a news release:

“More than a quarter of New Hampshire’s GOP voters are loyal to Donald Trump,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “That 27 percent isn’t a skyscraper, but it towers over the four candidates vying for second place. However, a surprise win from a second-tier candidate in Iowa could create the momentum needed to break into the twenty percent range in New Hampshire. If there are no surprises in Iowa, the undecided voters will be divided, and Trump will prevail.”

Gainers and losers since November

While voters looked more favorably on Rubio than other candidates (55 percent favorable–28 percent unfavorable), he has not yet grown as a first-choice candidate for the Republican nomination since a November Suffolk poll had him at 11 percent, compared to 10 percent now. The candidates gaining since November are Trump (+5 points), with Bush, Cruz and Kasich gaining 3 points each, while Christie gained 2 points. The biggest decline as a first-choice candidate was Carson (- 5 points), despite his high personal favorability.

[Last modified: Thursday, January 28, 2016 2:05pm]


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