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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Prediction markets see race as Bush vs. Rubio



Who's likely to be the Republican presidential nominee? Forget the notoriously unreliable early state and national polls in September and October, says the Jeb Bush campaign. The far more reliable predictors of nominating success at this early stage, senior Bush adviser, David Kochel says, are major endorsements - a sign of viability and organizational strength - and the prediction markets. In all areas Bush has maintained a comfortable lead.

But take a look at those prediction markets this week. Much of the media attention may be on Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, but the online oddsmakers and bettors seem to think that's just noise and that the real race is Jeb Bush versus Marco Rubio. 

The aggregation site Predictwise currently gives Bush a 32 percent chance of winning, Rubio 26 percent, and Trump 11 percent. In the popular Predictit site, Rubio is now trading stronger than Bush.

[Last modified: Wednesday, September 30, 2015 11:13am]


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