Make us your home page

The Buzz

From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

In new Q poll: Trump leads Clinton 42-39 in Florida



Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in Florida, leading her by three percentage points in a poll released Wednesday, a potential sign of her troubles over use of a private email server at the State Department.

The Republican gets 42 percent of the vote to Clinton's 39 percent, according to the Qunnipiac University poll conducted June 30-July 11 of more than 1,000 voters.

The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. But it is still a worrisome swing. In June, Clinton was up by 8 percentage points, 47 to 39.

In Ohio, she and Trump remained tied at 41 percent each. In Pennsylvania, Trump has taken the lead, 43 percent to 41 percent, erasing a 1 percentage point lead Clinton had in June.

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty," said pollster Peter A. Brown.

By wide margins, voters in each state agree with the statement, "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change."

"We know the battlegrounds are going to be close til the end," Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon wrote on Twitter. "That's why we need to keep working so hard. Trump is a serious danger, folks."

Voters also agree by wide margins that trade agreements with other countries have hurt them and their families' financial situation.

Voters still say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and that she is better prepared to be president. But Clinton has lost her wide lead over Trump for having "higher moral standards." And Trump widens his lead over Clinton for being more honest and trustworthy.

From a polling memo:

While the gender gap remains wide, Trump gains support among men, who back him 50–29 percent, and women, who back Clinton 48–36 percent, compared to 52–34 percent in June. Independent voters shift from 44–35 percent for Clinton last month to 43–30 percent for Trump today. Republicans back Trump 82–6 percent, while Clinton leads 87–4 among Democrats. White voters back Trump 54–30 percent, as nonwhite voters go to Clinton 56–21 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 35–59 percent for her and 38–54 percent for him.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:

  • • 53–37 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president.

  • • 42–42 percent tie on who has higher moral standards, wiping out a 47–36 percent Clinton lead on this measure June 21.

  • • 52–35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent.

  • • 50–37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy, up from 43–40 percent.

  • • Florida voters say 54–39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs; 49–45 percent that he would do better on immigration and 57–35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.

[Last modified: Wednesday, July 13, 2016 11:14am]


Join the discussion: Click to view comments, add yours