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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Quinnipiac poll 'was total dumpster fire in Florida'



There is little reason to doubt that Florida is a neck and neck race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, as the latest Qinnipiac University poll found it today. But as Democratic strategist Steve Schale points out -- and as similarly savvy Republican politicos have been pointing out for years - Quinnipiac has a decidedly mixed track record in Florida and tendancy to show nonsensically big swings in public opinion. We in the Florida political media probably give it more attention than its record and methodology merit.

...In 2012, the Q poll was a total dumpster fire in Florida. In May, Q held a press call and basically declared the state for Romney, showing us -6. Then the next four polls were Obama +4, Obama +6, Obama +9 and Obama +1, while at the same time, the race remained exceptionally constant. Over the same time, the RCP average in Florida went from Obama -1.4 to Obama -1.7.

In 2008, they weren't much better. They had about 12 point swing between May and September....

[Last modified: Wednesday, July 13, 2016 5:44pm]


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