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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Rubio still leads, but pollsters show Murphy closing gap

28

October

More and more polls are showing Florida’s U.S. Senate race is getting closer, though most indicate Marco Rubio is still leading Democrat Patrick Murphy.

Since Oct. 16, five different groups have released polls that have shown the margin between Rubio and Murphy is smaller than when they last polled the race.

Public Policy Polling, Florida Atlantic University, the University of North Florida, Fox 13/Opinion Savvy and Quinnipiac University all have released surveys since Oct. 16 that show on average Rubio is up by 2.4 percent. Those same five organizations all released polls from late August to early October that had that average margin at 5 percent in Rubio’s favor.

But Rubio’s campaign insists the race is going the otherway. Campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said other individual polls have shown Rubio pulling away. Key to that assertion is a Bloomberg Politics poll conducted from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25 that shows Rubio with a 10 point lead - the largest lead that any public polling results have shown this month. It was Bloomberg Politics’ only poll of the Florida Senate race this year.

The website FiveThirtyEight offers some evidence that the race is going Rubio’s way. On Oct. 1, the site gave Rubio a 75.5 percent chance of winning re-election. Today, that number is 81.5 percent.

Here is a look at polling results from 5 groups that released polls early this fall:

Florida Atlantic University
Now: Rubio 46, Murphy 42 (+4 Rubio)
August: Rubio 44, Murphy 39 (+5 Rubio)

University of North Florida
Now: Rubio 49, Murphy 43 (Rubio +6)
September: Rubio 48, Murphy 41  (Rubio +7)

Quinnipiac University
Now: Rubio 49, Murphy 47 (Rubio +2)
September: Rubio 48, Murphy 44 (Rubio +4)

FoxNews13/Opinion Savvy
Now: Rubio 46, Murphy 46 (tie)
September: Rubio 47, Murphy 43 (Rubio +4)

Public Policy Polling
Now: Rubio 46, Murphy 46 (tie)
Early October: Rubio 48, Murphy 43

[Last modified: Friday, October 28, 2016 2:13pm]

    

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