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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Schale: Hillary Clinton has secured the nomination with New York win



The following is from Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who says the race for the Democratic nomination is over:

The commanding win tonight by Secretary Clinton should bring an end to the nomination fight. Going into tonight, her delegate lead was over 200, and her popular vote lead was over 2.4 million. We'll see how the delegates get allocated, but her lead will significantly grown tonight, and she will add another 200,000 or more her popular vote lead. This in a state that Sanders' top advisor has said was one they needed to win, and one where Sanders himself, as recently as last week said: "We will win a major victory here in New York next Tuesday."

The facts on this are no longer disputable:

After tonight, Sanders will need to win 59% of the remaining delegates to get to the nomination. 

And if we look ahead to next week, based simply on the public polling available for the April 26th primaries & assuming Clinton gets no bump from tonight's win, after next Tuesday Sanders will need to win roughly 65% of the delegates in the remaining 14 contests (of which only two: Guam and Puerto Rico are caucuses).

To put it in clearer terms, after April 26th, she will only need to win about 350 of the remaining 1,000 or so delegates to secure a majority of pledged delegates. It is over.

In addition, after April 26th, she will almost certainly lead the popular vote by more than 3 million votes. There will also be no viable path for him to win a majority of the popular vote.

For those who point to 2008, let's compare the race at the same point: 

If you go back to the week after Pennsylvania — Obama had a less than 100 delegate lead in pledged delegates, compared to Clinton's, which will likely be over 300. And yes, California was earlier last time, but even if you take California out of the 08 map, she has more than twice the delegate lead that Obama had in 08.

Or compare the popular vote: less than 200,000 votes separated Clinton and Obama at this point in 2008.  This election, outside of the media narrative, has not been, nor today is anything like 2008.

There is no longer any viable path for Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee for President, and at this point, his staying in the race simply slows the critical organizing efforts that need to begin in battleground states.

Hillary Clinton is going to go to the convention with a much larger lead in both pledged delegates and popular vote than Barack Obama in 2008. This race isn't even close at this point, despite Sanders' recent wins.

For the Sanders people, I get it. His campaign is a remarkable story, and his team and his supporters deserve a lot of credit. It isn't easy when the Presidential dream ends. Trust me, I experienced it on a smaller scale last fall. There are real stages of grief when a campaign ends.

But it is over. First, he isn't going to win 65% of the remaining delegates, which under our math, would require him to win the states after April 26th by margins of roughly 30%.  Secondly, the Democratic super delegates (a system I support reforming) aren't going to overturn both the popular vote and the delegate vote to nominate Sanders.  Sanders isn't going to be the nominee and the sooner that everyone comes to grips with this, the better chance we will collectively have of winning in November.

More here.

[Last modified: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 8:07am]


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