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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

St. Leo poll: Alex Sink 46%, David Jolly 37%



From St. Leo University's Polling Institute:

Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican David Jolly 46-37 percent ahead of the March 11 special congressional election in the Pinellas, Florida-based 13th congressional district, according to a new poll released today by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute. Libertarian Lucas Overby would get 12 percent of the vote if the election were held today.

“Ms. Sink’s advantage is being driven by solid favorability ratings coupled with issue positions that seem to be more closely aligned with voter preferences than are Jolly’s,” said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. “She overcomes a partisan ID disadvantage in the district by maintaining much higher favorability among than Republicans and Independents than Mr. Jolly does among Democrats. The fact that a Libertarian candidate has robust support levels in the double digits seems to be contributing to the size of Sink’s lead.”

Democrats are overwhelmingly (88 percent) favoring Sink with only 6 percent favoring Jolly and 4 percent favoring Overby. However, Republicans are a bit more divided on their candidate. Only 64 percent of Republicans are backing Jolly. Sixteen percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for Sink and another 14 percent say they’ll chose the Libertarian candidate.

“Jolly is not only leaking Republican voters to Alex Sink, but also to David Overby,” said Orlando. “Traditionally, Libertarian candidates have siphoned off more support from Rebublicans and Republican-leaning independents, and this is the case here. Despite being outspent and advertised, Overby’s presence in the televised debate has increased his visibility, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain this support to election day.”

More here

[Last modified: Thursday, February 13, 2014 1:38pm]


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