Tampabay.com
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MAY 20, 2008

Economist: Better jobs mean better home sales

The surest and straightest path out of the housing crunch is to bring in better paying jobs.

That was the take of University of West Florida economist Rick Harper. He spoke this week at a gathering of 200 Florida economic development officials at the Intercontinental Hotel in Tampa.

Harper reiterated how Florida home prices have outpaced wages. He said median home prices used to be 3.2 times household income. In other words, if you and your wife made $100,000, you'd buy a house worth $320,000.

But during the last boom things got out of whack. The same home now costs 4.5 times household income, or $450,000 based on the previous scenario.

Of course, high-skilled workers help regions in ways other than housing market resuscitation. Quoting Bill Gates, Harper said each such worker spins off four additional jobs.

The "worst single thing" that could hit housing would be restrictive immigration policies, Harper said. By this he meant restrictions on legal immigration, not the illegal variety we associate with Rio Grande crossings.

Later in the economic development conference, another professor said the competition for good jobs can only get more heated.

Daniel Borgia of Florida Gulf Coast University said the tens of millions of skilled workers emerging in China and India will suppress our wages.

Borgia's worst case scenario: Average U.S. wages have already peaked. They'll never be higher than they are now - ever.

Let's hope he's wrong. The thrust of the conference was that innovation and productivity - not importing low-wage unskilled workers "with nothing else to lose" - are the path to a modern economy.   

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About the blog

Housing market news is the focus of the (Un)Real Estate blog. It offers an inside look at the Florida housing market and real estate news, with a focus on Tampa Bay. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.

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