I wrote a piece for the St. Petersburg Times about a presentation Wednesday by National Association of Realtors' economist Lawrence Yun. He predicted that in 5 years, Tampa area home values will have risen at least 20 percent from where they are now. That means if you bought in 2005 and 2006 at the peak of the market, you'll likely recover most of your investment by 2013.

Here's a line to the story.

Here's some extra stuff from Yun's Tampa talk that didn't make the story. Some of it's a recap of national news, but I found it interesting nonetheless:

• Chinese, German and Saudi investors were burned so badly on those securities backed by subprime mortgages that the subprime market is pretty much gone for good. FHA loans will have to fill the gap, but the government is tougher about lending to Any Old Joe. Yun discussed massive conflicts of interest on the part of Wall Street companies. The same companies that rated the securities (Moody's, etc.) also received millions in commissions by underwriting those securities. Then they force fed the junk mortgage money to the banks. This is how Yun described the process: "Here's the money. Give it to anyone who shows up."
• Yun said people who need to change homes should agree to "sell low and buy low." But he said homeowners hate to concede on prices, which rise quickly during booms but are "sticky" going down. Price stubbornness on the part of sellers is helping create a "lock-in effect:" No one can buy a house because no one can sell.
• Yun is lobbying the White House to sign more legislation helping home buyers. It includes a $7,500 tax credit for first-time purchasers. Yun turned up the screws on President Bush, saying a president who entered office promising an "ownership society" shouldn't leave office with a cloud of foreclosures hanging over the market.
• Predictions that a wave of foreclosures will swamp the market have been exaggerated. Yun said. The wave theory is based on the fact that adjustable rate mortgages taken out in 2006 and fixed for 2-years are resetting in greater numbers this month and next. Yun said huge numbers of investors who held those ARMs have already walked away from the loans prior to the reset. So we've already suffered much of the hit. Also, interest rates are so low the the resets won't be as disruptive.