We've been writing about the home sales pickup in places like Fort Myers, Cape Coral and Fort Pierce. Prices fell so far that some buyers have gone into scoop-up mode.  As a result, these left-for-dead communities find themselves in the vanguard of a tentative recovery.

Something similar seems to be brewing in Naples, if reports from luxury home builder Toll Brothers can be relied upon. In discussing the company's performance so far this year chairman Robert Toll singled out Naples as a bright spot.

Come again? Naples? This is the region that went from super potency to forlorn flacidity in the course of 2 short years. It's median home price, which topped out at over $500,000, was last seen spiraling into the "300s" before the local Realtor board ceased publicizing the glum monthly sales price reports.

But here's Toll:  "Naples was perhaps the worst market that we had for some time, and we were very happy to see it come back. It remains an anomaly, though, because the rest of Florida hasn't followed."

For what it's worth, here's my theory: The communities like Sarasota and Naples that hit the skids first as early as 2004-05 will start their recovery this year. Tampa-St. Petersburg should improve next year. Those late to the slump like Gainesville and Tallahassee might have to wait longer.