At first glance a 29 percent rise in home sales in the Tampa Bay area is mighty impressive. Compared to September 2007's tally of 1,691 home sales, closings climbed to 2,174 in September 2008, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

But though declining home prices are helping stimulate the market, September's improvement is mostly a statistical blip.

“The large percentage increase of sales this September versus September 2007 is inflated by the sharp decline in sales that took place in September 2007,” University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith said. “That was the month following the initial wave of global fallout precipitated by the subprime mortgage meltdown that roiled markets in August 2007.”

The median sales price of a single-family home in September dropped to $160,500. That's the lowest price recorded in the Tampa Bay area since May 2004, and a tribute to the oodles of distressed properties on the market.

“Compared to a fairly small share of foreclosures or short sales a year ago, distressed sales are currently 35 to 40 percent of transactions. These are pulling the median price down because many are being sold at discounted prices,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors.

The same pattern held statewide, where September sales of 10,817 represented a year-over-year increase of 24 percent. Most statistically impressive was the surge in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, where closings increased 128 percent from a year earlier.

It's no coincidence that Fort Myers' median sales price of $141,000 was among the lowest in the state.