Florida single family home construction will fall another 11 percent in 2009. According to Jennifer Coskren, senior economist at McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics, in-state home building will amount to about $8-billion next year. Lest that sound good, single-family home construction totaled $39-billion in 2005.

But the percentage declines will be worse in office and retail construction, both of which suffer belatedly when a rotten housing market slows population growth. Office construction will plunge 26 percent and retail construction 24 percent in 2009.

Both office and retail are coming off peaks in 2007-08, and the decline next year would bring then down to about 2003 levels.

Coskren predicted public works projects, particularly roads and bridges, would help keep construction workers employed. The incoming Obama administration is promising hundreds of billions of new spending in that arena. Other bright spots are hospital and power plant construction.

When will housing recover? Coskren is looking for a tepid turnaround in 2010. Commercial construction's comeback would follow in 2011.