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JANUARY 12, 2009

Economist Lereah: Realtors pressured me to issue upbeat forecasts

Remember David Lereah? He was the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors whose unsinkable optimism drew criticism as the housing market started...um...sinking.

Well, the Wall Street Journal did a profile of Lereah, and he insists he was pressured by the Realtor association's executives to issue positive reports.

Mr. Lereah, 55 years old, is one of many prognosticators who won professional accolades during the housing boom, only to see their reputations wither in the bust. Throughout 2005, when home prices in the U.S. hit their fifth consecutive annual record, Mr. Lereah was on television so often his wife, Wendy, would catch him by accident.

He flew first-class to meetings and speeches in places like Hawaii and Aspen, Colo., staying in suites at expensive resorts. His bosses awarded him more responsibility. That year, he published his second book, "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?"

Mr. Lereah continued to make rosy statements amid growing signs of a housing downturn -- like this declaration in January 2007: "It appears we have established a bottom." A few months later, NAR announced that existing-home sales fell 2.6% in April from a month earlier and 10.7% from a year earlier.

P1ao277_lereah_d_20090111200053_3 Another tidbit brought to my attention by my Times colleague Kris Hundley: In 2005, putting his own advice to work, Lereah bought a condo in Tampa for $169,600 at The Madison at Soho II at W. Azeele Street and S. Armenia Avenue. Hillsborough County prices the unit today at $146,489.

Let's give Lereah a little credit: His investment has shed only 14 percent of its value, about half the average decline in the rest of the region.

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Housing market news is the focus of the (Un)Real Estate blog. It offers an inside look at the Florida housing market and real estate news, with a focus on Tampa Bay. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.

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