Ray Torto, chief economist with the real estate firm of CB Richard Ellis, calls himself an optimist when it comes to the economy. The Bostonian is speaking tomorrow at the University of Florida. I reached the chatty prognosticator on the cell phone as he drove from the Orlando airport to Gainesville. Here's a sampling of his opinions. They didn't seem overly optimistic to me:

• Florida's economic recovery is still "a couple years away." "You partied too much," Torto said. "You've got to pay for it Sunday morning.’’ Torto's specialty is commercial real estate so he's talking mostly about a significant rise in employment that would help fill offices, warehouses and industrial sites.
• He said Florida home prices seem to be bouncing around the bottom, which is a signal for serious people to start buying real estate. "It's a wonderful time to get into real estate as long as you've got cash flow that will last the 5 to 6 years it will take for the market to recover,’’ he said.
• The overall U.S. economy has suffered a "terrific trauma" and remains in intensive care, Torto said. The unemployment rate won't improve for at least a year. That's because employers, even when profitable, will have to make their existing employees whole first. In other words, businesses will have to resume contributing to employees' 401K plans and pensions, restore temporary cuts in salary and commissions and end furloughs. That will consume profits that otherwise would pay for new hirees.
• As he considered Florida real estate, he quoted the late economist John Maynard Keynes: ”The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.’’