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OCTOBER 12, 2009

You're reading this right: The coming housing shortage

Into every stormy day the sun must come. At least that's true in Florida. Here's a put-on-a-happy-face piece in the Washington Times that predicts we can't suppress our appetite for housing much longer:  

The coming housing boom will not only employ carpenters, electricians and roofers, but real estate lawyers, policemen and firemen, teachers and athletic coaches to begin a very long list. It was once said that the automobile industry was the great American job producer. No more. That honor surely goes to housing.

America's history of successfully absorbing large waves of immigrants is a lightning rod for controversy, but the historical record is clear. New immigrant groups - be they German, Irish, Chinese, Italian, Jewish, Polish or Greek - are at first greeted with suspicion. Then they work hard, make lasting contributions and end up being central to America's cultural fabric.

Mexican immigrants are the hated group du jour but move into the mainstream rapidly. Today's landscapers and housekeepers are raising tomorrow's engineers, judges and entrepreneurs. Today's immigrants, like others before them, will leave the slums and barrios to chase the American dream in a leafy suburb.

Florida economists make similar points about the state's popularity as an immigration depot, mostly for Latin Americans. Will that accelerate the appreciation of our homes? I'm not so sure. Land is cheap and plentiful in Florida. Rest assured, developers will push deeper into orange groves and cattle pasture. Builders will churn out hundreds of thousands of new homes.

California development is artificially constrained (and naturally constrained by mountains, deserts and fault lines). Floridians don't seem much interested in throwing up man-made impediments to growth.

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Housing market news is the focus of the (Un)Real Estate blog. It offers an inside look at the Florida housing market and real estate news, with a focus on Tampa Bay. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.

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