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NOVEMBER 05, 2009

Commercial real estate report: “Sober year for 2010 and maybe not much better for 2011’’

Bad news from commercial real estate source CoStar Group:

Pricewater A record 900 people participated in this year's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute. The results won't do much to either comfort the pessimists or encourage the optimists.

Across the board, investor sentiment was at or near record lows. Survey respondents predicted that vacancies will rise and rents will fall in all property types before the market hits bottom next year. Only apartments rated as a "fair" prospect, with all others sinking into the fair to poor range, with respondents especially bearish on retail and hotels. Development prospects ranged from "dead" and "abysmal" to "modestly poor."

"Not surprisingly, the overwhelming sentiment of Emerging Trends interviewees remains decidedly negative, colored by impending doom and distress over prospects for an extended period of anemic demand and costly deleveraging," the report said.

On the other hand, value declines of 40% to 50% off 2007 peaks will present once-in-a-generation opportunities, respondents said. "A sense of nervous euphoria is growing among liquid investors who can make all-cash purchases" from distressed sellers and banks, said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank.

I listened in sporadically to a Web conference about this report on Thursday and the presenters didn't have too much flattering to say about Tampa Bay.

It seems we're not an international gateway. Neither are we a job creation powerhouse with all the requisite cultural amenities and public transportation. We build too many homes in fringe suburbs in a time of rising energy prices. 

"Places that accommodate mass transit will be much better off than places that don’t,’’ said Jonathan Miller, a consultant with Pricewaterhouse, in reference to a question about Tampa Bay.


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Housing market news is the focus of the (Un)Real Estate blog. It offers an inside look at the Florida housing market and real estate news, with a focus on Tampa Bay. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.

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