Will Tampa Bay home prices rise 5.6 percent by Sepember 2010?
First American CoreLogic is upbeat about Tampa Bay home prices. The real estate company predicts Tampa Bay appreciation of 5.56 percent between September 2009 and September 2010.
Most of that price growth will occur in the spring and summer of 2010, the company said. Short term, depreciation is the name of the game:
The new First American CoreLogic HPI Forecast anticipates continued declines in most markets, albeit at a slowing rate, for the next six months, followed by a rebound in the spring. Above-average levels of foreclosures, inventories and unemployment will continue to take their toll in many major metropolitan markets in the short term. As the economy continues to improve and these factors improve, the forecast calls for housing prices to bottom for most markets by March 2010 and then turn positive. This would yield the first positive year-over-year house price appreciation since the beginning of 2007.
Here's a chart with a state-by-state breakdown of home price changes from 9/08 to 9/09 and the projected changes from 9/09 to 9/10. Note how Florida outperforms states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, but under-performs California.
| State | September 2009 12 Month HPI
Change by State |
12 Month Forecast
(September 2009 - September 2010) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Combined | Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed | Single Family Combined | Single Family Combined Excluding Distressed | |
| National | -9.83% | -5.95% | 0.65% | 1.09% |
| Nevada | -25.49% | -20.40% | 0.00% | -3.09% |
| Arizona | -20.28% | -15.37% | -4.78% | -10.85% |
| Florida | -17.66% | -14.76% | 3.88% | 2.05% |
| Michigan | -15.06% | -8.02% | -6.84% | -4.33% |
| Idaho | -14.92% | -10.85% | -1.19% | 2.60% |
| Oregon | -12.55% | -9.80% | -1.77% | 2.56% |
| Washington | -12.36% | -10.31% | -4.17% | -3.18% |
| California | -12.16% | -6.95% | 9.36% | 8.24% |
| Maryland | -12.03% | -8.18% | 4.33% | 5.35% |
| Utah | -11.42% | -9.09% | 1.22% | 2.19% |
| Illinois | -10.56% | -8.18% | 2.54% | -0.89% |
| Wyoming | -9.74% | -4.93% | -3.33% | -1.05% |
| New Jersey | -9.55% | -7.63% | 2.47% | 2.97% |
| Montana | -9.04% | -4.69% | 1.60% | 0.85% |
| New York | -8.75% | -5.67% | 0.03% | 1.26% |
| Connecticut | -8.62% | -6.87% | 1.05% | 0.81% |
| Georgia | -8.29% | -5.75% | -0.89% | -0.97% |
| Maine | -8.11% | -8.16% | 1.94% | -0.16% |
| Rhode Island | -7.77% | -6.59% | 6.31% | -1.40% |
| Delaware | -7.44% | -5.52% | 0.04% | 1.68% |
| Minnesota | -7.36% | -6.81% | 0.76% | -0.51% |
| Alabama | -6.91% | -3.92% | 2.58% | 1.93% |
| District of Columbia | -6.64% | -4.90% | 4.72% | 2.14% |
| South Carolina | -6.29% | -5.18% | 2.38% | 2.41% |
| North Carolina | -5.70% | -4.80% | -0.19% | 0.36% |
| Wisconsin | -5.60% | -4.76% | 1.59% | 1.58% |
| Tennessee | -5.52% | -3.20% | 1.16% | 1.46% |
| Pennsylvania | -4.68% | -3.86% | 0.69% | 1.46% |
| New Hampshire | -4.60% | -5.94% | 5.00% | 2.98% |
| Mississippi | -4.55% | -3.02% | 0.79% | 1.30% |
| Indiana | -4.50% | -3.16% | 0.14% | -0.15% |
| New Mexico | -4.36% | -3.57% | 3.38% | 4.50% |
| Hawaii | -4.20% | -1.65% | 3.31% | 3.31% |
| Missouri | -4.10% | -2.11% | 2.35% | 1.21% |
| Louisiana | -4.08% | -1.77% | 2.24% | 2.69% |
| Arkansas | -3.89% | -2.79% | 1.37% | 1.78% |
| Virginia | -3.66% | -4.38% | 0.54% | 7.17% |
| Kansas | -3.30% | -3.94% | 2.11% | 1.60% |
| Colorado | -3.02% | -3.13% | 0.58% | -0.61% |
| Ohio | -3.00% | -3.55% | 0.00% | -1.05% |
| Massachusetts | -2.80% | -3.64% | 12.75% | 1.57% |
| Alaska | -2.70% | -2.60% | 2.06% | 3.93% |
| West Virginia | -2.56% | -5.46% | 0.79% | -1.08% |
| Kentucky | -1.53% | -0.37% | 2.74% | 1.70% |
| Oklahoma | -1.51% | -1.14% | 4.01% | 2.48% |
| Iowa | -1.37% | -0.39% | 2.37% | 1.67% |
| Nebraska | -0.97% | -0.43% | 3.93% | 2.36% |
| Vermont | -0.13% | -2.96% | 7.00% | 3.54% |
| Texas | -0.01% | -1.60% | 1.83% | 1.68% |
| South Dakota | 1.86% | -0.48% | 5.39% | 2.26% |
| North Dakota | 6.93% | 5.08% | 7.88% | |
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Housing market news is the focus of the (Un)Real Estate blog. It offers an inside look at the Florida housing market and real estate news, with a focus on Tampa Bay. Its goal? Simple: To help you keep a roof over your head without losing your shirt.
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