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Robert Trigaux

Real estate gathering ponders 'zombie' borrowers, 'train wreck' of securitization



Tampaskylinependygraft Wake up and good morning.

I'll keep this short because I'm out and about early today to moderate the opening panel of the Urban Land Institute's real estate trends conference at the Renaissance Vinoy Resort in St. Petersburg.

I mention this because the conference, which will look both at commercial and residential real estate trends, looks to offer a particularly unvarnished look ahead at 2010 and what may be a harrowing commercial real estate market for man -- or for those with cash looking for bargains, a year for "scoring generational bargains."

So says an especially useful study, 2010 Emerging Trends in Real Estate, from the Urban land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers. You don't usually read lines like this one in such a research publication:

"Put another way -- 2010 looks like an unavoidable bloodbath for a multitude of 'zombie' borrowers, investors and lenders. Given the looming 'train wreck' of escalating commercial mortgage-backed securities rollovers ($250 billion to $300 billion annually through 2015). the shakeout period may extend 'several years' as even some conservative owners with well underwritten loans from the early 2000s see their equity destroyed."

Dang. Tough language to be writing so early on a Friday morning. I'm outta here and off to the Vinoy to learn how this rough outlook applies specifically to the Tampa Bay region. The economy may have more torment ahead than we thought.

(Photo: Downtown Tampa skyline by John Pendygraft, St. Petersburg Times.)

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

[Last modified: Tuesday, June 1, 2010 11:26am]


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