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Robert Trigaux

Tampa Bay 2010 job outlook? Mixed, with strong rebounds amid further declines

Economy.comusamaprecoveryvsmnoderating Wake up and good morning. At least one prominent forecaster says the Tampa Bay economy will show some slight positive job gains in 2010, and offers some details that might interest readers. Economic consulting firm Moody's Economy.com forecasts a 0.8 percent increase in jobs for the Tampa Bay area based on the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the same quarter of 2009.

What's striking is which industries will show the greater signs of snapping back, and which will languish. Here are the one-year highlights for jobs, by sector, for Tampa Bay:

Constructionpublixstpete2008williejallenjr * Construction:Up 17.6 percent. Of course, construction jobs were devastated in recent years, but the strong positive forecast for this sector has to be encouraging. (Photo: Construction in 2008 at a site for Publix. By Willie J. Allen Jr. of the St. Petersburg Times.)

* Education and health services: Up just 0.6 percent. This sector has been the savior of the regional economy through the recession but is softening. Education jobs, funded by taxes, are under severe pressure.

* Financial activities: Up 1.3 percent, aided by a relatively (we hope) stabilizing stock market, industry bailouts and getting over the hump of the burst housing bubble.

* Government: Down 2.8 percent. Dwindling taxes means bigger government cuts. Some may cheer but you will see leaner services and attempts to raise rees, like the $8 entry to Fort DeSoto beachfront park.

* Information: Down 3.8 percent. Not sure I agree with Economy'com's assessment on this one. I hear brighter outlooks but it's a broad category of employment.

* Leisure and hospitality: Down 0.9 percent. It's a big piece of the regional job market so this could hurt. Of course, if that BP gulf oil spill reaches this area, watch out.

* Manufacturing: Down 1.4 percent. Losing these jobs is like water torture. Drip. Drip. Drip. And many are higher-wage jobs.

* Natural resources and mining: Down 2.3 percent. The only upside to this is we're not talking about a large number of jobs in the first place.

* Other services: Up 2.8 percent. Talking about everything from personal care, religious work, and repair and maintenance.

* Professional and business services: Up 0.8 percent. Exactly the same as the overall increase expected int he Tampa Bay job market. This is a big category. At least it's up.

* Retail: Up. 2.4 percent. Shop, baby shop!

* Transportation and warehousing: Up 1.1 percent.

* Utilities: Up 1.8 percent.

* Wholesale trade: Up 4.7 percent. Strong uptick. just not a big jobs sector for the area.

An interactive map that details Economy.com forecasts for individual states and metro areas can be found on the USA Today website here.

-- Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist

[Last modified: Tuesday, June 1, 2010 12:27pm]

    

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