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Robert Trigaux

Tampa Bay forecast? Surprising gain in home prices by 2013 as some other markets still suffer

10

August

forsalesignsbillserne.jpgWake up and good morning. Tampa Bay home prices are expected to continue dropping until 2012 and show an impressive 7 percent price increase from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013.

Am I dreaming? Am I reading that the downward spiral from hell in our home prices may be nearing an end? Dare we put faith in this forecast from Fiserv Case-Shiller whose index of metro home prices have been one of the economic stalwarts tracking the real estate crisis? This forecast even suggests a healthy boost (7 percent) in prices, not just some lackluster flatlining.

With due skepticism, I offer some forecasts from Fiserv Case-Shiller, just out this week. One message from this forecast is that Florida is the epicenter of wild swings ahead up and down in regional home prices. Consider:

"Four of the 10 metro areas where home prices are projected to grow the most between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 are in Florida (Ocala; Palm Coast; Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach; Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville). But the state is also home to six of the 10 markets projected to suffer the biggest home price declines over the same time period (Miami-Miami Beach, Kendall; Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; Naples-Marco Island; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin; Gainesville; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford)."

Yes, Orlando, which offers so many other signs of rebound, is on the list of big declines ahead in home prices. Let's look at the specific forecasts, including Tampa Bay's.

* Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater:
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012: -5.5%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2012 – first quarter, 2013: +7% (yes, that's a positive 7 percent)

* Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford:
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012: -7.6%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2012 – first quarter, 2013: -3.1%

* North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota:
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012: -5.9%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2012 – first quarter, 2013: +0.4%

* Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall: (it's still getting battered)
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012: -13%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2012 – first quarter, 2013: -10.1%

* Jacksonville:
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012: -2.9%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2012 – first quarter, 2013: +5.5%

Want to see more individual metro market forecasts? Click here. Want to see the best and worst metro markets based on these same forecasts? Click here.

Photo: Bill Serne, St. Petersburg Times

-- Robert Trigaux, Business Columnist, St. Petersburg Times

 

[Last modified: Wednesday, August 10, 2011 9:02am]

    

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