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NFL Power Rankings, Week 12: Patriots remain No. 1, Eagles rise to No. 2

Three NFC South teams are in the top 10.
 
Wentz-Prescott III wasn't much of a contest. Carson Wentz and the Eagles demolished the Cowboys 37-9 on Sunday night.  [Getty Images]
Wentz-Prescott III wasn't much of a contest. Carson Wentz and the Eagles demolished the Cowboys 37-9 on Sunday night. [Getty Images]
Published Nov. 22, 2017|Updated Nov. 22, 2017

What follows below is a ranking of all 32 NFL teams. To build this list, we consulted five objective measures of team strength: Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, ESPN’s Football Power Index, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings and statistician Jeff Sagarin’s NFL ratings. We then used a composite of those measures as a guidepost.

Previous rankings: Week 10, Week 11

1. New England Patriots (record: 8-2; composite ranking: 3.0)

Last week: 33-8 win over Raiders

Week 11 ranking: 1

Playoff odds: 99.7 percent

Road games? No problem. The Patriots have won 13 straight, the NFL’s longest active streak. Road games in other countries? The Patriots will win those, too. They’re 3-0 (two wins in London and Sunday’s win against the Raiders in Mexico City).

2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1; 1.4)

Last week: 37-9 win over Cowboys

Week 11 ranking: 5

Playoff odds: 99.9 percent

The Eagles didn’t just beat the Cowboys on Sunday night; they dismantled them. In the second half, Philadelphia outscored Dallas 30-0, much to the dismay of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and Cowboys fan/New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

3. New Orleans Saints (8-2; 2.4)

Last week: 34-31 win over Washington

Week 11 ranking: 2

Playoff odds: 97.8 percent

A Super Bowl contender has to do more than blow out teams every week. They have to show they have the mettle to steal games, too. The Saints weren’t supposed to win Sunday, rallying from 15-point deficit with less than six minutes left.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2; 4.4)

Last week: 40-17 win over Titans

Week 11 ranking: 3

Playoff odds: 99.9 percent

Remember when Ben Roethlisberger said “Maybe I don’t have it anymore” after he threw five interceptions against the Jaguars in early October? The Steelers haven’t lost since.

5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2; 5.6)

Last week: 24-7 win over Rams

Week 11 ranking: 7

Playoff odds: 95.4 percent

Sunday had to be especially sweet for Vikings quarterback Case Keenum. Against the Rams, who benched him last season for Jared Goff, he completed more than 70 percent of his passes and threw one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He’s ranked second in ESPN’s QBR (injured Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is ranked first).

6. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4; 7.4)

Last week: 12-9 loss to Giants

Week 11 ranking: 4

Playoff odds: 90.4 percent

What’s wrong with the Chiefs, losers of four of their past five games? Alex Smith must have gone back to being Alex Smith, right? While he hasn’t been as efficient as he was during Kansas City’s first five games, the run game might be the bigger problem. Over the Chiefs’ first five games, they averaged 5.7 yards per carry, best in the NFL. Over their past five, they’ve averaged 3.6 yards per carry, worst in the NFL.

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-3; 8.2)

Last week: 24-7 loss to Vikings

Week 11 ranking: 6

Playoff odds: 90.3 percent

Sunday’s 24-7 loss looks more lopsided than it really is. The Rams and Vikings were tied heading into the fourth quarter. Los Angeles still has the inside track in the NFC West.

8. Carolina Panthers (7-3; 9.0)

Last week: bye

Week 11 ranking: 9

Playoff odds: 73.4 percent

The Panthers have won three in a row, and they’re getting stronger. Tight end Greg Olsen, who hasn’t played since Week 2 because of a broken foot, returns Sunday against the Jets. In each of Olsen’s previous five seasons, Carolina quarterbacks have targeted him at least 100 times.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3; 9.0)

Last week: 19-7 win over Browns

Week 11 ranking: 8

Playoff odds: 99.2 percent

A win Sunday against the Cardinals clinches a .500 record for the Jaguars, who haven’t won eight games since 2010. They haven’t had a winning record since 2007, when Dirk Koetter was the offensive coordinator and Mike Smith was the defensive coordinator.

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-4; 10.0)

Last week: 34-31 win over Seahawks

Week 11 ranking: 11

Playoff odds: 40.2 percent

Monday night’s win over the Seahawks catapulted the Falcons into position to claim an NFC wild-card berth. They have the tiebreaker advantage over not only the Seahawks but also the Lions and Cowboys.

11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4; 10.6)

Last week: 34-31 loss to Falcons

Week 11 ranking: 10

Playoff odds: 32.6 percent

Russell Wilson does it all for the Seahawks. After Blair Walsh missed a potentially game-tying 52-yard field goal Monday night, you wonder what it will take for coach Pete Carroll to ask Wilson to try some kicks.

12. Dallas Cowboys (5-5; 13.8)

Last week: 37-9 loss to Eagles

Week 11 ranking: 12

Playoff odds: 7.9 percent

Without running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) and left tackle Tyron Smith (groin and back injuries), the Cowboys offense has stalled. Dallas has been outscored 64-16 the past two weeks. Now, they have to deal with a nasty schedule turnaround — they played Sunday night and will play late Thursday afternoon. Because player safety.

13. Detroit Lions (6-4; 11.6)

Last week: 27-24 win over Bears

Week 11 ranking: 13

Playoff odds: 49.4 percent

The Lions have won three straight, but let’s put that in context. During the streak, they’ve beaten the Packers, Browns and Bears, and in each of the past two, they’ve fallen behind 10-0. Before the streak, they lost three straight, dropping games to the Panthers, Saints and Steelers. They get the Vikings at home on Thanksgiving.

14. Baltimore Ravens (5-5; 12.2)

Last week: 23-0 win over Packers

Week 11 ranking: 14

Playoff odds: 74.8 percent

The Jaguars defense gets a lot of credit for winning despite Blake Bortles, so let’s hear it for the Ravens defense for winning despite Joe Flacco. Jacksonville and Baltimore lead the NFL in takeaways, with 23 apiece.

15. Washington (4-6; 15.2)

Last week: 34-31 loss to Saints

Week 11 ranking: 15

Playoff odds: 4.3 percent

One of the NFL’s greatest inequities is its schedule. It’s possible for a weak team like the Titans to coast into the playoffs because of a soft schedule, while a strong team like Washington is likely to miss out. Washington’s opponents are a combined 63-37.

16. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6; 13.6)

Last week: 54-24 win over Bills

Week 11 ranking: 20

Playoff odds: 23.4 percent

A blowout win Sunday was a bit of a change of pace for the Chargers. Seven of their games this season have been decided by one score.

17. Tennessee Titans (6-4; 21.0)

Last week: 40-17 loss to Steelers

Week 11 ranking: 16

Playoff odds: 59.7 percent

Marcus Mariota has thrown an interception on 3.6 percent of his passes this season, the highest rate of his career. His touchdown rate has declined from 5.8 percent last season to 2.8.

18. Green Bay Packers (5-5; 16.8)

Last week: 23-0 loss to Ravens

Week 11 ranking: 17

Playoff odds: 7.6 percent

The Packers have lost three straight at Lambeau Field. Their next home game is December 3 against the Bucs, who have lost 13 of their past 14 games in Green Bay.

19. Buffalo Bills (5-5; 24.0)

Last week: 54-24 loss to Chargers

Week 11 ranking: 18

Playoff odds: 23.7 percent

Nathan Peterman interceptions in two quarters Sunday: five. Tyrod Taylor interceptions this season: three.

20. Houston Texans (4-6; 19.2)

Last week: 31-21 wins over Cardinals

Week 11 ranking: 22

Playoff odds: 6.5 percent

What a hard-luck season for the Texans. First, they lost defensive end J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury. Then they lost quarterback Deshaun Watson. On Sunday, they lost rookie running back D’Onta Foreman, who scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns. On the second, he injured his ankle and had to be carted off the field.

21. Oakland Raiders (4-6; 20.2)

Last week: 33-8 loss to Patriots

Week 11 ranking: 19

Playoff odds: 6.8 percent

The Raiders are the only team in NFL history to fail to intercept a pass in its first 10 games of a season. They’re allowing opponents to complete a league-high 72.3 percent of their passes.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6; 21.6)

Last week: 20-17 win over Broncos

Week 11 ranking: 23

Playoff odds: 5.8 percent

After the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs and Jaguars, the AFC is rather weak. The Titans and Ravens are in position to claim the wild cards, but don’t count out the Bengals yet. Their next three games (vs. Browns, Steelers and Bears) are at home, and they close out the regular season against the Ravens (in Baltimore).

23. Denver Broncos (4-6; 24.8)

Last week: 20-17 loss to Bengals

Week 11 ranking: 21

Playoff odds: 2.6 percent

Who will be the Broncos starting quarterback this Sunday? Eenie meenie miney mo … it’s Paxton Lynch! Denver has lost six in a row, its longest losing streak in a single season since 1990, when 30-year-old John Elway was the starting quarterback.

24. Arizona Cardinals (4-6; 26.6)

Last week: 31-21 loss to Texans

Week 11 ranking: 24

Playoff odds: 0.4 percent

On Sunday, Blaine Gabbert became the 15th player to throw a touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald. The others: Josh McCown, Shaun King, Kurt Warner, John Navarre, Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, Richard Bartel, Ryan Lindley, Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6; 20.6)

Last week: 30-20 win over Dolphins

Week 11 ranking: 25

Playoff odds: 0.8 percent

The Bucs scored 24 of their 30 points against the Dolphins off of turnovers. This Sunday, they face Matt Ryan, who is not Jay Cutler.

26. New York Jets (4-6; 26.0)

Last week: bye

Week 11 ranking: 26

Playoff odds: 3.7 percent

It’s the fifth anniversary of the Butt Fumble!

27. Chicago Bears (3-7; 23.8)

Last week: 27-24 loss to Lions

Week 11 ranking: 27

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

Give the Bears this: They won’t win many games this season, but they’ll put up a fight. Since they made the switch from Mike Glennon to Mitch Trubisky in Week 5, five of their six games have been decided by one score. And in the one game that wasn’t, they beat the Panthers 17-3.

28. New York Giants (2-8; 25.2)

Last week: 12-9 win over Chiefs

Week 11 ranking: 31

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

Giants kicker Aldrick Rosas had missed a field goal in four straight games. So of course he kicked the game-winner Sunday against the Chiefs — and after missing an extra point earlier in the game!

29. Miami Dolphins (4-6; 28.8)

Last week: 30-20 loss to Bucs

Week 11 ranking: 28

Playoff odds: 2.2 percent

As bad as the Dolphins have been (five losses by 10 or more points), they’re only one game out of a playoff spot in the AFC.

30. Indianapolis Colts (3-7; 30.8)

Last week: bye

Week 11 ranking: 29

Playoff odds: 1.6 percent

The Colts didn’t play Sunday. You didn’t notice, did you?

31. San Francisco 49ers (1-9; 30.2)

Last week: bye

Week 11 ranking: 30

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

Former 49ers receiver Terrell Owens is among the semifinalists for the 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame class. He has been a finalist for two straight years but has been passed over by the selection committee. He deserves a gold jacket.

32. Cleveland Browns (0-10; 31.0)

Last week: 19-7 loss to Jaguars

Week 11 ranking: 32

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

The Browns are the first team to start 0-10 in consecutive seasons since the 1976 and 1977 Bucs.

Playoff odds are from Football Outsiders. Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.