The New England Patriots are going to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in four seasons.

So says a Madden NFL 18 simulation of Super Bowl LII.

The video game predicts a dramatic finish in Sunday’s championship contest, with the Patriots knocking down a potential game-winning touchdown pass to preserve a 24-20 win over the Eagles.

Why should you believe what Madden says? EA Sports, the game’s developer, started using Madden to simulate the Super Bowl in 2004, and since then it has correctly predicted the winner 10 times. Its record has been more mixed in recent seasons, however. It incorrectly picked the Steelers to beat the Packers in 2011, the Broncos to beat the Seahawks in 2014 and the Panthers to beat the Broncos in 2016.

Since 2015, the Tampa Bay Times has used Madden to forecast the Buccaneers’ season. The results have been eerily accurate.

In 2015, our simulations predicted Tampa Bay would win five games; it won six.

In 2016, our simulations predicted eight wins; the Bucs won nine.

This season, many expected Tampa Bay to end its playoff drought. Madden didn’t buy the hype. Our simulations predicted six wins; the Bucs won five.

Here is every Madden Super Bowl prediction since 2004:

• Super Bowl XXXVIII

Madden prediction: Patriots 23, Panthers 20

Real result: Patriots 32, Panthers 29

• Super Bowl XXXIX

Madden prediction: Patriots 47, Eagles 31

Real result: Patriots 24, Eagles 21

• Super Bowl XL

Madden prediction: Steelers 24, Seahawks 19

Real result: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10

• Super Bowl XLI

Madden prediction: Colts 38, Bears 27

Real result: Colts 29, Bears 17

• Super Bowl XLII

Madden prediction: Patriots 38, Giants 30

Real result: Giants 17, Patriots 14

• Super Bowl XLIII

Madden prediction: Steelers 28, Cardinals 24

Real result: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23

• Super Bowl XLIV

Madden prediction: Saints 35, Colts 31

Real result: Saints 31, Colts 17

• Super Bowl XLV

Madden prediction: Steelers 24, Packers 20

Real result: Packers 31, Steelers 25

• Super Bowl XLVI

Madden prediction: Giants 27, Patriots 24

Real result: Giants 21, Patriots 17

• Super Bowl XLVII

Madden prediction: Ravens 27, 49ers 24

Real result: Ravens 34, 49ers 31

• Super Bowl XLVIII

Madden prediction: Broncos 31, Seahawks 28

Real result: Seahawks 43, Broncos 8

• Super Bowl XLIX

Madden prediction: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

Real result: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

• Super Bowl 50

Madden prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 20

Real result: Broncos 24, Panthers 10

• Super Bowl LI

Madden prediction: Patriots 27, Falcons 24

Real result: Patriots 34, Falcons 28

Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.