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2018 NFL over/under win totals: Predicting where Vegas is right and where it’s wrong

The Bucs, Saints, Rams, Chargers and Vikings are among the best bets.
 
Based on point differential, the Bucs underachieved last season. Teams with comparable differentials usually win seven games, not five. [Getty Images]
Based on point differential, the Bucs underachieved last season. Teams with comparable differentials usually win seven games, not five. [Getty Images]
Published May 4, 2018|Updated May 10, 2018

The Buccaneers will field a new and improved defensive front next season, but will it be good enough to put them back in the playoff hunt?

No, says the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, which recently released over/under win totals for the 2018 NFL regular season. It has the Bucs at 6.5.

How’d it come up with that?

Race and sportsbook manager John Murray said that he and three of his colleagues ran through the NFL schedule and assigned a point value between 0 and 1 to each team for each game. That value represented a team’s win probability. They added up those values to get a team’s win total.

Then Murray and his team averaged their results. In some cases, they tweaked the final number based on where they expected bettors to place their money. Fans of the more popular teams tend to bet the over, so sportsbooks might inflate those teams’ win totals to tilt the odds even further in the house’s favor.

One of the factors that depressed the Bucs’ win total had less to do with them and more to do with who they’re playing.

“The biggest strike against the Bucs is that they play in the NFC South,” Murray said. “All three (of their rivals) have a win total of at least nine. One of them, New Orleans, could have been in the Super Bowl.”

Plus, there’s a decent chance the Bucs get off to a slow start, Murray said. They open the season with three straight games against playoff teams from last season — the Saints in Week 1, the Eagles in Week 2 and the Steelers in Week 3.

Murray said he did not weigh the possibility of the NFL suspending Jameis Winston. The league is investigating accusations that Winston groped a female Uber driver in March 2016.

It’s worth noting that over/under win totals aren’t necessarily predictions. They’re guesses designed to elicit bets. Some of those guesses come close, while others prove to be wildly inaccurate. Last season, eight teams beat Westgate’s over/under total by at least two wins. Eight teams, including Tampa Bay, fell short by at least two wins. The Bucs’ over/under was 8.5; they won five games.

Here are the 2018 over/under win totals for all 32 teams followed by my predictions:

Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins

UNDER. I’m not buying that the Cardinals were as good as their 8-8 record last season. Add to that a new head coach and a new quarterback — one that they reportedly didn’t even want. According to Bleacher Report’s Chris Simms (yes, the former Bucs quarterback), the Cardinals were “heartbroken” that the Bills traded up get Josh Allen.

Atlanta Falcons: 9 wins

PUSH. This roster is largely the same as the one that came within 2 yards of beating the Eagles in the playoffs last season. The offense was better than people think, but the defense was a weakness. The team lost Adrian Clayborn and Dontari Poe in free agency, so defensive line depth could be a problem.

Baltimore Ravens: 8 wins

PUSH. The Ravens, who missed the playoffs because of a strength-of-victory tiebreaker, are a bounceback candidate. Of their seven losses, five were decided by one score. Joe Flacco isn’t helping. His play has declined three straight seasons. First-round pick Lamar Jackson will be waiting.

Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins

UNDER. Only seven playoff teams in NFL history have had a regular-season point differential of -50, and one of them was the 2017 Bills. Only one of those teams earned a better record the next season — the 2011 Broncos. The 2012 Broncos had Peyton Manning. The 2018 Bills will have A.J. McCarron/Josh Allen.

Carolina Panthers: 9 wins

UNDER. The Panthers won eight of nine games decided by one score last season. In January, Carolina fired offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who had been on the coaching staff every season of Cam Newton’s career. How long will it take for Newton to adjust to Norv Turner’s system?

Chicago Bears: 6.5 wins

OVER. Other than the Browns, the Bears were the only team that lost every divisional game last season. They suffered some tough breaks last season, including last-second losses to the Vikings and 49ers.

Cincinnati Bengals: 7 wins

PUSH. The Bengals took steps to improve their atrocious offensive line, trading for left tackle Cordy Glenn and drafting center Billy Price. But beating the Browns won’t be as automatic as it has been for each of the past three seasons.

Cleveland Browns: 5.5 wins

OVER. You’d expect the Browns to bounce back some after an 0-16 season, but a six-game turnaround? It’s not unheard of. The 1991-92 Colts went from one win to nine. The 1996-97 Jets went from one to nine (the Kotite-to-Parcells bump). The 2001-02 Panthers went from one win to seven. The 2007-08 Dolphins went from one win to 11. The 2009-10 Rams went from one win to seven.

Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 wins

UNDER. After the release of Dez Bryant and the retirement of Jason Witten, the Cowboys’ passing attack is full of questions. Allen Hurns might be their best option. At least they’ll have a full season of running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspended for six games last season).

Denver Broncos: 7 wins

UNDER. If Case Keenum is not Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch, that could be enough to take the Broncos from five wins to seven. Denver turned the ball over 34 times last season, second to only Cleveland’s 41. This isn’t a deep team, so it might need some immediate contributions from its rookies.

Detroit Lions: 8 wins

UNDER. Of the Lions’ nine wins last season, one came against a team with a winning record (they beat the Vikings 14-7 in Week 4).

Green Bay Packers: 10 wins

PUSH. With the return of Aaron Rodgers, the debut of defensive coordinator Mike Pettine and the selection of cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson in the draft, there’s plenty of reason for optimism.

Houston Texans: 8.5 wins

OVER. Quarterback Deshaun Watson returns after suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 8, and while the Texans were 3-3 in his starts, coach Bill O’Brien has done more with less. From 2014 to 2016, Houston went 9-7 with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, Tom Savage and Brock Osweiler taking snaps.

Indianapolis Colts: 6.5 wins

UNDER. A new head coach in Frank Reich (the offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl champion Eagles) and the potential return of Andrew Luck make this a tempting bet, but until I learn that Luck has picked up an official NFL football, I’m not touching the over.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 wins

OVER. There are a number of reasons to pick the under. Blake Bortles. Some regression from the defense. The return of Watson and Luck to the Texans and Colts, respectively. Still, nine wins seems low to me, and I wonder how much the Jaguars’ history as AFC South bottom dwellers is feeding this number.

Kansas City Chiefs: 8.5 wins

UNDER. The Chiefs have averaged 10.6 wins a season under coach Andy Reid. Now comes their biggest test under Big Red: the transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes. Football Outsiders’ QBASE projection model liked Mahomes when he came out of Texas Tech last year, but he has only one game of NFL experience.

Los Angeles Chargers: 9 wins

OVER. The Chargers were one of the few teams last season that was strong on both sides of the ball. Their kicking, though, was an Aguayo-like disaster. They converted 66.7 percent of their field goals, the lowest mark by any team since 2014. With Caleb Sturgis in the fold, they’re bound to improve. If they don’t, Aguayo’s lurking on the roster and eager for a shot at redemption.

Los Angeles Rams: 9.5 wins

OVER. With the acquisitions of Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Brandin Cooks and Ndamukong Suh, the Rams are all in on 2018. They didn’t have a draft pick until late in the third round, so their reign atop the NFC West might be short-lived.

Miami Dolphins: 6 wins

UNDER. You can’t blame the Dolphins’ fall from 10-6 to 6-10 on Jay Cutler. The offense wasn’t good, but the defense needed a Bucs-scale rebuild. Miami allowed 57 pass plays of 20 or more yards last season, tied with Tampa Bay for third most. The Dolphins, who traded for edge rusher Robert Quinn in March, prioritized defense in the draft, picking defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick in the first round and linebacker Jerome Baker in the third.

Minnesota Vikings: 10 wins

OVER. Coach Mike Zimmer’s defense has improved every season since he joined the Vikings in 2014. There’s not much more room for improvement in 2018, though — Minnesota’s defense ranked second in Football Outsiders’ efficiency ratings. Kirk Cousins would seem to be an upgrade over Case Keenum, but Keenum played at an MVP level last season. Hard to see this team falling from 13 wins to nine.

New England Patriots: 11 wins

OVER. The Patriots have won 12 games in eight straight seasons. MVP Tom Brady, who turns 41 in August, has shown no signs of slowing down. The end for quarterbacks, though, often comes suddenly. See Manning, Peyton.

New Orleans Saints: 9.5 wins

OVER. It’s not as if the Saints won a bunch of close games and squeaked into the playoffs last season. They were a legit 11-win team.

New York Giants: 6.5 wins

UNDER. The Giants chose not to address their biggest offseason need: quarterback.

New York Jets: 6 wins

UNDER. The Jets are feeling the pain of bad 2014 and 2015 drafts (defensive tackle Leonard Williams aside). It didn’t help that they traded three second-round picks to the Colts (two this year, one next) to land a quarterback in the draft. They might be worse than the Browns this season.

Oakland Raiders: 8 wins

UNDER. The Raiders’ decline last season seems greater than it really was. They were never as strong as their 12-4 record in 2016 suggested. They won nine of those 12 games by one score and five of them by three or fewer points.

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 wins

UNDER. Most of their starters are returning, so the Eagles should make a run at a repeat. Carson Wentz, who tore his ACL in December, might not be ready for Week 1, and even if he is, you wonder how long it’ll take before he’s playing at the level he was playing at before the injury. The low end of the recovery timetable is nine months, which means Wentz could miss most, if not all, of training camp. There’s no need for the Eagles to rush him back; they still have Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.5 wins

UNDER. How much longer can the Steelers feed Le’Veon Bell the ball before he shatters? Last season might have been his peak. The past eight running backs to touch the ball 400 times in a season saw their yardage production drop nearly 40 percent the next season.

San Francisco 49ers: 9 wins

UNDER. I expected this number to be 8, maybe 8.5 tops. My guess is that Las Vegas sensed that fans would buy into Jimmy Garoppolo’s 5-0 finish and bet the over. The 49ers certainly looked like a different team down the stretch, but they edged the Bears and Titans by a combined three points and crushed a Rams team that was resting its starters in Week 17.

Seattle Seahawks: 8 wins

UNDER. The Seahawks are a team in decline. They emerged as a potential dynasty thanks to a string of successful drafts, but they’ve had trouble replenishing the roster as players have declined or as their salaries have increased. The NFC West is the Rams’ division to lose, and the 49ers could get good quickly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins

OVER. The Bucs have cited their 3-7 record in one-score games as one of the reasons they’re closer to contending than cleaning house. There’s some validity to that. A team with their point differential usually would win seven games. This season’s team is more talented and deeper, so a 7-9 record is a reasonable floor. To exceed that, they’ll need some best-case scenarios to come to fruition. Among them: fewer Jameis Winston turnovers, an improved rushing attack, a credible pass rush and some injury luck.

Tennessee Titans: 8 wins

UNDER. A 9-7 record — the Titans’ record each of the past two seasons — is less of an indication of a team on the rise as you’d think. None of the teams that finished with a 9-7 record in 2016 (Texans, Titans, Broncos, Lions and Bucs) won more games in 2017.

Washington: 7 wins

PUSH. Since 1999, Washington has finished above .500 five times and won only two playoff games. In that time, they have had seven coaches (not counting interim coaches) and have started 22 quarterbacks. Alex Smith will be quarterback No. 23. One man’s job hasn’t changed: owner Daniel Snyder. As long as he’s the owner, I’m expecting a bad brand of football.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.