Choosing sides in a war usually isn't this tough.
Especially when the battlefield is Hollywood's Kodak Theatre, where the 82nd annual Academy Awards will be presented tonight.
Never have lines been so distinctly drawn between best picture favorites: a cinematic superpower and a determined guerrilla production. Avatar had every filmmaking and marketing weapon at its disposal, while The Hurt Locker gutted it out in film festival trenches, practically missing in box office action.
The academy expected a face-off between blockbuster tastes and arty film vitality when the best picture category expanded beyond five nominees for the first time since 1943. But they probably didn't expect a final showdown this downright puzzling.
Now it's our duty to guess how the academy will handle the standoff, part of the annual tradition of Oscar party pools and prediction columns like this.
Let's begin with the biggest skirmish of the night:
BEST PICTURE
After raising moviegoers' expectations of a best picture winner they've actually seen, I don't see the academy swerving all the way to the mainstream. Avatar is a megahit cinematic milestone but The Hurt Locker has qualities that Oscar voters admire: a serious topic, expertly crafted, plus a rags-to-riches history proving anything is possible in Hollywood. Voters may also believe James Cameron has prospered enough.
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push'' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Persall's pick: The Hurt Locker, making it the lowest-grossing movie ($12 million) to ever win the best picture Oscar.
BEST ACTOR
Nearly 40 years after bursting onto the scene in The Last Picture Show, Jeff Bridges will win his first Oscar for playing a washed-up country music singer in Crazy Heart. It's the perfect combination of Bridges being both worthy and overdue, after four previous nominations, plus the cult classic, The Big Lebowski
.
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Persall's pick: The Dude abides tonight.
BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) perfectly captured chef Julia Child's trilling voice and lumbering presence. Yet only one woman over the past decade (Charlize Theron, Monster) claimed the best actress Oscar with her film's lone nomination. Streep finds herself in that situation this year. The Blind Side earned only one nomination besides Sandra Bullock's but it's a biggie: best picture.
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Persall's pick: Bullock caps her comeback year with a golden statuette.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
All signs point to Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), who swept every major pre-Oscars prize in this category. It could be closer than you think. The academy sometimes uses this category to reward winless old-timers (most recently Alan Arkin and Morgan Freeman), so octogenarian Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) could pull off a surprise with his first nomination ever.
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Persall's pick: Waltz, but not waltzing away from the pack.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Like Waltz, Precious co-star Mo'Nique grabbed every pre-Oscars award in sight, for her searing portrayal of an abusive mother. Unlike Waltz, she isn't competing against a sentimental favorite. Plus, this is the only real chance for Precious to nab an Academy Award, and the movie is admired enough to deserve one.
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Persall's pick: Mo'Nique, who will never land a role this good again.
DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) will become the first woman ever to win this Oscar. Bigelow's closest competition is ex-husband James Cameron (Avatar), who has publicly endorsed her winning. That means something, in a town known for acrimonious divorces.
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Persall's pick: Bigelow, because she's solid, and the academy loves making history.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No way that Up in the Air leaves empty-handed tonight. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner didn't just adapt Walter Kirn's novel of internal monologues but actually improved it.
District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education, Nick Hornby
In the Loop, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire, Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Persall's pick: Up in the Air, easily and wittily.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tough call, this one. Mark Boal's backstory as a former embedded journalist in Iraq, leading him to write The Hurt Locker, is good copy. Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds) writes loquacious scripts that actors love, and they're the academy's largest voting branch.
The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger, Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman
A Serious Man, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Up, Bob Peterson, Pete Docter
Persall's pick: Boal, which actually could spoil The Hurt Locker's chance of winning best picture, since only one film (Crash) in the past decade won both Oscars.
ANIMATED FEATURE
No surprise expected since Up is also among the 10 best picture finalists.
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
Persall's pick: Never bet against Pixar (Up)in this category.
QUICK PICKS FOR THE REST OF OSCAR'S 24 CATEGORIES
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami, Israel
The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada), Peru
A Prophet (Un Prophete), France
The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos), Argentina
The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band), Germany
Persall's pick: Germany's dark fascism fable, The White Ribbon. Purely guesswork since that's the only nominee I've seen, as foreign film distributors mostly skipped the Tampa Bay area in 2009.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up
Persall's pick: Up composer Michael Giacchino clinched this Oscar in the film's first 10 minutes, a wordless, romantic arc that left viewers sobbing.
ORIGINAL SONG
Almost There, The Princess and the Frog
Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
Loin de Paname, Paris 36
Take It All, Nine
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
Persall's pick: I'd nominate a couple of livelier songs from Crazy Heart but The Weary Kind will do.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
Persall's pick: Go with the movie boasting sights unlike any others you've ever seen: Avatar, legitimizing the 3-D trend that will be Hollywood's meal ticket for years to come.
FILM EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Persall's pick: The bomb disposal scenes of The Hurt Locker are textbook examples of creating tension in the editing room.
ART DIRECTION
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Persall's pick: State-of-the-art, digitally painted sets or old-school crafting by hand? I'll choose Avatar, for opening Pandora's box of spectacular fantasy.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Persall's pick: The only way that Avatar loses is if voters kept their eyes closed during screenings.
COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Persall's pick: Nine was a dud but those kicky 1960s duds were divine.
MAKEUP
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
Persall's pick: Give me the alien lifeforms of Star Trek over powdered regals (The Young Victoria) and prosthetic mimicry of an Italian politician (Il Divo).
SOUND EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
SOUND MIXING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Persall's picks: Two categories that nobody outside show biz can tell apart. Avatar recently earned top honors from the sound editing guild, so give it both Oscars.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home
Persall's pick: The Cove and Food, Inc. shared a slot on my top 10 list, so I'm pulling for both. I'll pick The Cove, which presented its eco-causes with the crackling suspense of a caper movie.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin
Persall's pick: Haven't seen the nominees, as usual, but The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant sounds topical enough for Oscar voters.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants
Persall's pick: Judging solely from a preview trailer, The New Tenants gives off a Fargo-style vibe.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Persall's pick: Never bet against Nick Park in this category. A Matter of Loaf and Death starring Wallace & Gromit should earn his fourth Oscar here, and fifth overall.
Steve Persall can be reached at persall@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8365. Read his blog, Reeling in the Years, at blogs.tampabay.com/movies.
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