In honor of The Artist, I would prefer to remain silent on Oscar predictions, but this gig doesn't allow that. A movie critic must sort through the buzz, history, trends and gut feelings to make picks.
This year is more treacherous than usual, with two films — The Artist and Hugo — that could inspire landslide support from voters all the way to the final envelope. My guess, though, it that the academy will thinly spread statuettes among almost all of the nine best picture nominees.
Here are my picks, along with a ballot to record your own.
PICTURE
• The Artist
• The Descendants
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse
Nomination totals make this a two-way race between Hugo (11) and The Artist (10). However, Hugo has no acting nods. Only five movies since 1959 won best picture with that liability (Gigi, The Last Emperor, Braveheart, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire). The Artist won the Producers Guild of America award, which has predicted the past four consecutive Oscar winners and 13 of the last 20.
Persall's pick: The Artist
ACTRESS
• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
This award was practically conceded to Streep when she was hired to play Margaret Thatcher. Plus, she's due — she hasn't won an Oscar since 1983. But that wait will continue, since Davis won the Screen Actors Guild prize and the actors' branch is the academy's largest voting bloc. This justifies The Help's inclusion in the best picture race, while honoring a respected and long-overlooked actor.
Persall's pick: Davis
ACTOR
• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardin, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Clooney seemed unbeatable when The Descendants debuted. Then Dujardin's performance became iconic. You'll see him in retro montages forever. He'll become the first Frenchman to win a best actor Oscar.
Persall's pick: Dujardin
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help
If I had a vote, it would go to Jessica Chastain, for The Help and five other 2011 performances deserving praise. Or perhaps McCarthy since the academy so shamelessly undervalues comedy. The smartest money is on Spencer, who cut a swath through awards season, accepting prizes with the class voters appreciate in winners.
Persall's pick: Spencer
SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill, Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer, Beginners
• Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Plummer has a major awards sweep going, not to mention the sentimental benefit of nearing the end of his illustrious career. One nagging obstacle: His is the lone Oscar nomination for Beginners, and winning from that position is rare. Still, although I'm inclined to go with Branagh's turn as Laurence Olivier, let's play it safe.
Persall's pick: Plummer
DIRECTOR
• Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Hazanavicius recently claimed the Directors Guild of America award, making him a strong Oscar favorite with his first nomination. Only six times since 1948 has the academy differed with the DGA's choice, and not since 2002. That's too much tradition to ignore.
Persall's pick: Hazanavicius
ANIMATED FEATURE
• A Cat in Paris
• Chico & Rita
• Kung Fu Panda 2
• Puss in Boots
• Rango
For the first time in this category's decade-long history, a Disney-Pixar production isn't in the mix. The Mouse House does have a distribution stake in Spain's Chico & Rita, and won an Oscar under similar subtitled circumstances with Spirited Away. Any of the three English-language nominees could win. For sheer gonzo originality there's no better choice than Gore Verbinski's lizard tale.
Persall's pick: Rango
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• The Descendants
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Persall's pick: The Descendants gets a consolation prize for Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash's sublime domestic tragi-comedy.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Margin Call
• Midnight in Paris
• A Separation
Persall's pick: Woody Allen's 15th screenwriting nomination will net his third Oscar, tying him with Billy Wilder, Paddy Chayefsky, Francis Ford Coppola and Charles Brackett for the most among wordsmiths.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
• Bullhead, Belgium
• Footnote, Israel
• In Darkness, Poland
• Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
• A Separation, Iran
Persall's pick: Only one nominee made it to Tampa Bay theaters, but that was enough. Asghar Farhadi's lacerating drama A Separation also earned him an original screenplay nomination, sealing the deal.
FILM EDITING
• The Artist
• The Descendants
• The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
Persall's pick: Keep an eye on this category, one of the most accurate early indicators of which movie wins best picture. With that in mind, I'm going all in with The Artist.
SOUND EDITING
• Drive
• The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse
Persall's pick: Seriously, I don't know anyone who can explain the difference between this category and sound mixing. Toss a dart and hit Hugo.
SOUND MIXING
• The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse
Persall's pick: In case there's no difference between sound mixing and editing, I'll stick with that Hugo dart.
DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
• The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
• God Is the Bigger Elvis
• Incident in New Baghdad
• Saving Face
• The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Persall's pick: Dolores Hart's journey from movie starlet kissing a pop icon to life in a convent shows voters God Is the Bigger Elvis.
DOCUMENTARY, FEATURE
• Hell and Back Again
• If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
• Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
• Pina
• Undefeated
Persall's pick: A movie trilogy that corrected miscarriages of justice gets its reward: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory.
SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
• Dimanche
• The Fantastic Flying Books of Mrs. Morris Lessmore
• La Luna
• A Morning Stroll
• Wild Life
Persall's pick: Pixar's La Luna is an obvious favorite because, well, it's from Pixar. I'm guessing the academy continues feeling nostalgic with The Fantastic Flying Books of Mrs. Morris Lessmore.
SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
• Pentecost
• Raju
• The Shore
• Time Freak
• Tuba Atlantic
Persall's pick: I'll guess The Shore, simply because it's written and directed by two-time screenwriting nominee Terry George (Hotel Rwanda, In the Name of the Father).
ART DIRECTION
• The Artist
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• War Horse
Persall's pick: Dante Ferretti crafted an eye-popping train station setting for Hugo's adventure and re-created cinema's infancy with astonishing details of Georges Melies' method.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
• The Artist
• The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse
Persall's pick: Emmanuel Lubezki made navel-gazing gorgeous in The Tree of Life. The winner of this category claimed the best picture prize only once in the past decade (Slumdog Millionaire).
COSTUME DESIGN
• Anonymous
• The Artist
• Hugo
• Jane Eyre
• W.E.
Persall's pick: Sometimes simple elegance trumps flashier fashions. That should be the case with The Artisttist's dapper 1920s suits and classic flapper designs.
MAKEUP
• Albert Nobbs
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
• The Iron Lady
Persall's pick: Lots of hype about Glenn Close transforming into a man and Meryl Streep matching Margaret Thatcher's hairdo. Harry Potter ends his saga without a single Oscar when The Iron Lady triumphs.
MUSICAL SCORE
• John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
• Ludovic Bource, The Artist
• Howard Shore, Hugo
• Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• John Williams, War Horse
Persall's pick: No other movie depended upon its composer as much as The Artist. From playful to tragic, Bource hit all the right notes.
ORIGINAL SONG
• Man or Muppet from The Muppets
• Real in Rio from Rio
Persall's pick: Not even the academy cares this year. The wrong Muppet tune made the cut but wins.
VISUAL EFFECTS
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
• Hugo
• Real Steel
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Persall's pick: Andy Serkis' motion-capture performance in Rise of the Planet of the Apes was robbed, but not the technology helping it happen.
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