My head hurts, like someone went Inception on me or Micky Ward caught me with a left hook.
It happens every year around this time, from sorting through Academy Award nominees in 24 categories to guessing the winners. I'd like to believe I'll be perfect, but I have a better chance of sprouting black feathers and mastering a jete.
This year, 10 truly deserving best-picture nominees have a trickle-down effect on narrower and therefore highly competitive categories. Even in acting races with clear-cut favorites, a case can be made for an upset. In fact, I'm predicting one in a major category.
After all the awards shows and critics polls, with every filmmaking guild except caterers weighing in, picking the Oscars is still dicey. That's especially true as the academy's voting membership evolves into a younger, more adventurous entity.
Each major category features conventional films that the academy historically loves (The King's Speech, The Fighter), and a new wave of edgier excellence (The Social Network, Black Swan) finally gaining respect. Tonight's results will determine how youthful the academy's feeling these days.
Me? I'm feeling like Rooster Cogburn the morning after, head spinning with past awards results and current buzz. Caught between a rock and 24 hard places. Don't worry; the kid will be all right, if three-quarters of these predictions come true. Steve Persall, Times film critic
BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Twelve nominations for The King's Speech are two more than any other movie, and the overall leader typically wins best picture. Late box-office momentum and an ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild confirm that hunch. That is, unless Oscar's quest for youthful relevance leads to The Social Network, although that's admitting that nearly every other awards show was right, and earlier. The academy will go its own way.Persall's pick: 'The King's Speech'
ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Portman has everything in her favor: a sweep of previous awards, an iconic character in Black Swan, and a baby bump boosting her already inestimable charm. More people saw her performance than the other four combined (times two), so any other choice puts the academy at odds with mainstream moviegoers. Ignore the whispers about Bening being due; she'll only take home Warren Beatty again.
Persall's pick: Portman
ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Any selection besides Firth would be one of the most shocking upsets in history. Only Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy ever claimed consecutive best-actor Oscars, so odds are against Bridges. Eisenberg and Franco split whatever youth movement is building in the academy, and Bardem's entirely foreign language role is a handicap with some voters. Oh, and Firth was flat-out terrific.
Persall's pick: Firth
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
The academy makes nice with fans still griping about The Dark Knight not being nominated for best picture of 2008 by giving an Oscar to the guy who played Batman. Bale patched up his surly reputation with a succession of amiable acceptance speeches, while matching Firth and Portman's win streaks. Rush could win if there's a King's Speech landslide in the works.
Persall's pick: Bale
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
There must be one surprise in the acting races. I'm guessing it's here. Leo won nearly all previous awards, but splitting votes with a co-star seldom succeeds at the Oscars. The academy hasn't minded giving this prize to newcomers who aren't old enough to vote (Patty Duke, Anna Paquin, Tatum O'Neal). Steinfeld, 14, also plays the lead in True Grit, which doesn't seem fair among supporting roles but never hurts.
Persall's pick: Steinfeld
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Since 1985, the Directors Guild of America presaged this winner 76 percent of the time. This year the group chose Hooper, and that's good enough for me.
Persall's pick: Hooper
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Persall's pick: Aaron Sorkin's script for The Social Network defined the now, and made intelligent dialogue sound cool.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Persall's pick: David Seidler turned a childhood stammer into a decades-long labor of love. Winning an Oscar for The King's Speech is the perfect happy ending.
ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Persall's pick: Toy Story 3, for completing the most consistently superb screen trilogy ever — and making $415 million domestically doing it.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
Persall's pick: Killing in the Name, about a Muslim antiterrorism activist whose family was murdered on his wedding day by a suicide bomber.
ANIMATED SHORT
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
Persall's pick: The whimsical fable Day & Night. Never bet against Pixar in this category.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
Persall's pick: Na Wewe has the political edge voters admire, depicting an incident during 1994's Rwandan genocide.
ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
Persall's pick: Historical accuracy in The King's Speech trumps the fantasy elements of Inception.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Persall's pick: True Grit's Roger Deakins is the most highly regarded camera jockey who never won an Academy Award. Until tonight.
COSTUMES
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Persall's pick: Alice in Wonderland, for its sheer volume of trippy, imaginative designs.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
Persall's pick: Charles Ferguson's Inside Job deserved to be a best-picture finalist.
MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
Persall's pick: The subtle aging of Paul Giamatti, playing a loser through 40 years, makes Barney's Version a winner.
FILM EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Persall's pick: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter masterfully juggled both sides of the Facebook controversy in The Social Network.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors la Loi (Algeria)
Persall's pick: Bardem's performance and Alejandro González Iñárritu's reputation (Babel, 21 Grams) make Biutiful an obvious choice.
ORIGINAL MUSICAL SCORE
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Persall's pick: Nine Inch Nails frontman Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross set a Red Bull pace for The Social Network with synth-rock urgency.
ORIGINAL SONG
Coming Home from Country Strong
I See the Light from Tangled
If I Rise from 127 Hours
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
Persall's pick: Four more choices. Seriously. Otherwise, I See the Light, only because the floating lanterns that accompanied it were gorgeous.
SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Persall's pick: Even when the plot was indecipherable, the aural awesomeness of Inception was loud and clear.
SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Persall's pick: Another technical award for Inception sounds appropriate.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Persall's pick: Buildings flipping? A fight scene in a rotating hallway? Inception is the only nominee showing wonders we've never seen before.
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