The New York Times' Nate Cohen has an excellent analysis of two factors that many Florida Democrats are banking on to help them finally win a presence in Tallahassee: The influx of Puerto Rican voters after Hurricane Irma and a ballot initiative that could give 1.5 million Floridians the right to vote.

…But the reality for Democrats is that neither development is likely to fundamentally alter Florida's political character heading into the 2020 election.

The main reason? The electoral effect dwindles after accounting for the relatively low turnout rates among these groups. More generally, even big demographic shifts that seem to favor Democrats could easily be swamped by other demographic shifts that do the opposite…