The Rick Scott campaign today sent supporters the following memo about its internal polling. We're not vouching for these numbers any more than we are for the latest Quinnipiac poll showing Bill Nelson up 6 percentage points. Always wise to be skeptical of internal campaign polls that are released with a clear agenda, in this case probably to reassure donors:
Today, in case you are asked on the recent polls, I wanted to share with you the below information from Wes Anderson, lead pollster for the Scott for Florida campaign. Governor Scott is starting to really break away in these final 15 days. BUT WE CANNOT LET UP. 15 days is still a lot of time. We have to fight this battle to the end and run through the finish line in a full sprint. Now is the time to do everything you can do, from donating to the Governor's campaign, to volunteering to going door to door in support of the Governor Scott.
Jackie Schutz Zeckman
Scott for Florida Campaign Manager
To: Scott campaign
From: Wes Anderson
Date: October 22, 2018
Re: Recent FL Survey Findings
With two weeks until election day Gov. Scott is in the best position he's been in this entire campaign, and is poised to win a decisive victory on November 6th.
As the linked slides indicate, Governor Scott currently leads Senator Nelson 51% to 46%, a lead that is outside of the margin of error.
It should also be noted that this sample from last week is very robust at 2,200 interviews of likely voters, stratified by county to reflect historic mid-term turnout. Our sample shows the Republicans with a one-point turnout advantage, even though we believe we will end up with a two- or three-point advantage. For historical context, in the past two mid-term elections Republicans had a four-point advantage in 2010 and a three-point advantage in 2014. At R+1, that makes our current sample a very conservative take on the likely partisan composition of this year's electorate.
The voters approve of the job the Governor is doing by a score of 56% to 40%. This is not the case for Senator Nelson, as 46% approve of the job he is doing, and 45% disapprove.
Additionally, while the race for Governor is tighter, Ron DeSantis currently leads Andrew Gillum by 48% to 45%.
As you may have noticed, Senator Nelson and interest groups controlled by Chuck Schumer in Washington are bombarding the airwaves with massive amounts of advertising smearing the Governor. They know they are behind, and are throwing everything they can at the Governor, with their trademark disregard for facts or truth. Some things never change of course, but the voters of Florida are not falling for it.