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Retail trade group offers weak holiday forecast

NEW YORK — Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets and high gas and food prices, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation being released today.

The outlook from the retail trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that will likely lead to aggressive discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.

Merchants have also scaled back holiday inventories and seasonal sales staff from a year ago. The challenges are compounded by a holiday season that has five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day than in 2007, which could make consumers delay their buying.

"You don't have a good picture," said Rosalind Wells, the federation's chief economist. Last week's financial turbulence, from Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection to a proposed $700-billion government bailout of the financial system, "only increases the uncertainty and anxiety," she said. Wells said she doesn't expect an economic turnaround until the second half of next year.

The trade association, based in Washington, predicted that total holiday sales will rise a modest 2.2 percent for the November and December period from a year ago, to $470.4-billion. That would be below the 10-year average of 4.4 percent holiday sales growth and a bit below the 2.4 percent gain last year. It would also be the slowest pace since 1.3 percent in 2002.

Total retail sales figures from the federation exclude business from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. The estimate also excludes online sales and reflects last week's financial turmoil, Wells said.

Two other forecasts, from Deloitte LLP and TNS Retail Forward, that were made before the recent market turbulence had predicted the weakest holiday growth since 1991 — though they use different metrics.

Deloitte LLP expects total holiday sales — excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, but including online sales — to rise 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the November-through-January period, less than last year's 3.4 percent gain. A rise of 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in that period would be the smallest gain since 1991, Deloitte noted.

TNS Retail Forward, a global market information group, sees retail sales rising 1.5 percent in the October-through-December period, the weakest performance since 1991. The figure includes online sales but excludes sales from gas, supermarkets, restaurants, drug chains and autos.

Stores are closely monitoring what's happening on Wall Street as lawmakers rush to put their imprint on the Bush administration's massive plan to save financial markets. Any more upheaval could lead to stores' retooling their plans, including hiring. Holiday hiring is already likely to fall significantly short of last year's total, which was the lowest since 2003, according to job placement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Sales outlook

National Retail Federation forecast: The world's largest retail association expects total retail sales to be up 2.2 percent, which would mark the smallest increase since the 1.3 percent pace in 2002.Estimates cover November and December and exclude sales from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. The estimate also excludes online sales.

Holiday hiring

Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecast: The job placement consulting group projects that holiday season hiring is likely to fall significantly short of last year's total, which was the lowest since 2003. It said that retail employment grew by 698,300 during the October-through-December period in 2007, more than 4 percent off the average of 727,500 season job gains over the past decade.

Retail trade group offers weak holiday forecast 09/22/08 [Last modified: Wednesday, November 3, 2010 1:09pm]
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