TAMPA — Much is riding on whether the gleaming condo towers built downtown in the past couple of years will turn a profit and spur more development and a bigger urban residential market.
So speculation about who's moving in is a popular sport among Tampa business and political insiders.
But even after Wednesday, when the Tampa Downtown Partnership released its findings from a study that was supposed to shed light on downtown's new denizens, it's still unclear who these people are.
Of the 212 who responded to the residential part of the study, only 63 actually live in downtown or the Channel District. The rest — 149, about two-thirds of the total — hail from Harbour Island, Hyde Park, Ybor City, Bayshore and South Howard, neighborhoods that are a far walk from downtown.
Christine Burdick, the partnership's president, said the marketing firm HCP & Associates made a mistake during Wednesday's presentation at the St. Pete Times Forum by stating on a PowerPoint slide that the respondents lived in the downtown and Channel District.
"We didn't proof it hard enough," she said.
The study intended all along to measure downtown's marketplace, meaning the downtown and those select areas around it, not its actual population.
"For the purposes of market gathering information, there isn't enough in downtown to represent a statistically significant sample," Burdick said.
An e-mail invitation to the event, however, might have left the impression that this was a survey of just downtown residents. It said the study was to provide "conclusive results" relating to the downtown work force and resident population.
"We could have said it better," said Burdick.
"The rest of this is very valid," she said. "If I was the Tampa Performing Arts Center or a pizza place, this would be great information that I would want."
Unlike the residential portion of the study, the work force survey included only employees from within the downtown area and the Channel District.
Of the 1,074 who responded, about 12.5 percent were "very interested" in living downtown.
"That number stunned me," said Patrick Hill, HCP's president, noting the demand this represents from the larger total downtown work force. "We don't have the housing for them."
Of those working downtown, 61 percent were female and 39 percent were male. About 91 percent drive to work. About 85 percent drive alone. Of those driving, nearly half had commutes that were 30 minutes or longer.
With congestion getting worse, downtown has become a ripe residential destination, he said. High-quality restaurants have already moved in, and retail could soon follow, Hill said.
"We're closer than we think," he said.
Of the surveyed residents from downtown and beyond, nearly 60 percent were men. About 35 percent were between the ages of 25 and 34. Most impressive was that nearly half had a household income of more than $100,000. They were also involved in nearby amenities, with 43 percent becoming members of the Florida Aquarium and 33 percent members of the Tampa Bay Performing Arts Center.
Many of the 100 professionals who attended Hill's presentation at the St. Pete Times Forum liked what they heard.
"The pendulum is swinging in the right direction," said Leroy Sullivan, manager of external affairs for TECO Peoples Gas. "As the baby boomers get older and commutes get longer, downtown gets more attractive."
But others in the audience were skeptical.
Ellen Brown has owned the Old Tampa Book Co. at 507 N Tampa St. for the past 14 years. She said she thinks foot traffic outside her shop has dwindled, an indication that all is not on the upswing.
"It's certainly headed in the right direction," Brown said. "But this residential population that was talked about today? It's not visible to me."
Michael Van Sickler can be reached at (813) 226-3402 or mvansickler@sptimes.com.
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