As long as the race is close come Election Day, Barack Obama should win Florida thanks to soaring supporter enthusiasm and a vast get-out-the-vote operation. So says Steve Schale, Florida director for the Obama campaign, who appears on Political Connections on Bay News 9 today at 11 a.m. and 8 p.m.
And what area of Florida will he be watching closest as the returns come in? "Places like Pasco and Pinellas — this bay area. So goes the bay area, so goes Florida," said Schale, who was also asked about Sarah Palin's effect on swing voters in places like the Tampa Bay area.
"The McCain campaign threw a Hail Mary, and in the short term it was a completed pass. The question is whether or not she can run with the ball. We'll have to see. She's got some tough questions she'll have to answer, she has to go through the debate, she's got to come on Political Connections and answer the tough questions," said Schale, sucking up to his interviewers.
Jewish vote worries
It's not a Florida-specific poll, but it points to a problem for Obama in Florida: A new national poll of 914 Jewish voters commissioned by the American Jewish Congress shows Obama receiving 57 percent support and John McCain 30 percent (54 percent disapproved of the Palin pick, and 73 percent approved of Joe Biden as a running mate). Remember that in 2004 Bush received 24 percent of the Jewish vote nationally and 20 percent in Florida, according to exit polls.
Mind you, only about 5 percent of the Florida electorate is Jewish. But that's still about 400,000 voters, and serious slippage in the Democratic base makes it all that much harder for Obama to make up that 380,000-vote margin by which Republicans won Florida four years ago.
Respect Rosh Hashana
Apparently, Bill Clinton is concerned about the Jewish vote too. He had been expected to campaign for Obama in Florida Monday, but the ex-president told Larry King last week that he won't campaign during Jewish holidays. Rosh Hashana runs Monday through Wednesday.
"You know, they think that because of who I am and where my political base has traditionally been, they may want me to go sort of hustle up what Lawton Chiles used to call the 'Cracker vote' there," Clinton said. "But Sen. Obama also has a big stake in doing well in the Jewish community in Florida, where Hillary did very well and where I did very well. And I just think respecting the holidays is a good thing to do."
Voter registration flood continues
The state Division of Elections is scrambling to process the flood of new voter registration forms. The state, which a few years ago took over responsibility for managing Florida's voter database, wants already swamped supervisors to handle some of the work.
Oct. 6 is the deadline to registering for this election.
Taking issue with the Times
David Plouffe, Obama's national campaign manager, took a little shot at us Saturday over a St. Petersburg Times story a couple weeks ago suggesting Florida could be slipping away from Obama. The latest polls show a neck-and-neck race.
"We're seeing today that Florida could not be more competitive," Plouffe said. "We think we've really strengthened in Florida, we have a strong base in Florida. And so what McCain was hoping would be a state that may not be a central battleground is a central battleground. We feel very optimistic about our prospects in Florida."
Staff writer Steve Bousquet contributed to this week's Buzz.
Winner of the week
State Rep. Janet Long, D-Seminole, the winner, had a target on her back after narrowly defeating Dottie Reeder in 2006 for the House District 51 seat. But Republicans made a mess of trying to unseat her, pushing aside Bruce Cotton in favor of Terry Sanchez, who dropped from the race last week unexpectedly. GOP leaders tapped lifeguard Christopher Peters, 26, to step in, though his name won't even be on the ballot. Votes for Sanchez will go to Peters.
Loser of the week
Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Oviedo, was embroiled in scandal five years ago after crooked lobbyist Jack Abramoff flew him to Scotland on a golf junket. He's worried it will hurt his prospects. In his newest campaign ad, he apologizes for "rookie mistakes." Feeney, as a former Florida House speaker, was not exactly a political rookie when he took that trip.
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