Advertisement

Local bakeries worry egg shortage could force a hike in pastry prices

 
Lauren Swiontek, 15, one of Michael Ostrander's students at the St. Pete Bakery cracks eggs for a batch of Glorious Morning Muffins on Thursday in St. Petersburg.  


[MONICA HERNDON | Times]
Lauren Swiontek, 15, one of Michael Ostrander's students at the St. Pete Bakery cracks eggs for a batch of Glorious Morning Muffins on Thursday in St. Petersburg. [MONICA HERNDON | Times]
Published July 17, 2015

Pastry chef Michael Ostrander misses the days when eggs were his last concern, when the cheap but vital ingredient to his daily operation at St. Pete Bakery cost $20 a case.

Now he pays $42.

Since an avian influenza outbreak last year that wiped out nearly 50 million laying hens and turkeys in the Midwest — the largest since the 1980s — the price of eggs has skyrocketed, leaving Ostrander and local bakers like him in a dilemma: absorb the steeper costs or jack up the price of cookies, pies and pastries, a move that could alienate customers.

"It's very, very, very serious," Ostrander said. "What do you do?"

The potential fallout to your sweet tooth:

Publix anticipates a price bump in its creme and angel food cakes. Alessi Bakery fears its custards and eclairs, which require the most eggs, could jump in price. At Frida's Cafe and Bakery in Largo, Frida Alipour herself had to tack on an extra 10 cents to her signature egg panini.

All are stuck in a holding pattern, they say, until they know how long the disruption could last.

"I don't like raising prices," Ostrander said. "I haven't, and I will try not to. But we use a lot of eggs."

So does Alessi Bakery, the century-old Tampa foothold on Cypress Street. In a week, the bakery goes through as many as 5,760 eggs, said owner Phil Alessi, 69.

"It makes it very difficult," he said. "We bit the bullet. We're hoping it will go down in the next month or two."

Economists predict that is likely, at least for eggs bought by the dozen in grocery stores or in bulk.

The bounceback all depends on how quickly the affected Midwest farms can disinfect their coops and start breeding a new flock of laying hens, said Todd Kuethe, an agriculture economist at the University of Illinois. It could take as long as a year and a half for the egg market to completely stabilize.

The current strain of avian influenza, or bird flu, always lives in migratory birds and does not pose a problem until it infects commercial poultry populations — but not because of a public health concern, said Gary Butcher, a professor and avian flu expert with the University of Florida.

In order for the United States to export chicken products, the birds must be free of disease, Butcher said. The fastest way to eradicate an outbreak, then, is to kill exposed birds. Most of the 50 million birds that died were killed by their owners, not the flu, he said. About 12 percent of the U.S. egg-laying population was lost.

The disease spread because of unsanitary practices, Butcher said — accidental transfer of fecal matter between coops and contaminated water supplies.

Once farmers eliminated infected birds, they had to disinfect their coops before they could begin rebuilding their flocks. The length of the cleaning process is undefined, Butcher said, and can take as long as five months. Once coops are deemed sanitary, farmers must wait another 18 weeks before a chick will start to lay eggs.

Keep up with Tampa Bay’s top headlines

Subscribe to our free DayStarter newsletter

We’ll deliver the latest news and information you need to know every morning.

You’re all signed up!

Want more of our free, weekly newsletters in your inbox? Let’s get started.

Explore all your options

But, Butcher said, egg prices will begin to drop before the agricultural side stabilizes.

Kuethe said that is already happening.

Last week, a dozen large eggs in the Southeast region of the United States cost $1.92 for volume buyers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"I think we're actually past the worst of it," Kuethe said. "Prices will continue to decline, hopefully."

Poultry farmers in Florida were spared this time, Butcher said, because the migratory birds didn't carry the disease this far south. But the rapid spread has farmers across the state on high alert.

Meanwhile, Alipour, owner of Frida's in Largo, is scouring wholesale outlets for the best prices on eggs. Her bakery and cafe uses 6,000 eggs a week to crank out cookies, cheesecakes, tortes and more. Staying competitive, especially on high-dollar items like wedding cakes, has her worried.

"We can ride it for a few months," she said. "But we don't want to lose the bottom line."

Contact Katie Mettler at kmettler@tampabay.com or (813) 226-3446. Follow @kemettler.