Cheap airline tickets will make winter holiday travel easier

Is it too early to buy tickets for Thanksgiving or Christmas holiday travel?

I know, lots of folks are still figuring out where to go — or whether to go somewhere — for Labor Day weekend. And nobody wants to be the dope who jumps too soon only to miss a deal on cheap airline tickets a few weeks later.

Airlines traditionally jack up fares for the winter holidays as demand for seats exceeds supply. Relying on sophisticated computer records of how many customers fly on specific days and how much they pay, carriers have doubled or tripled normal fares and still filled their planes.

This year is different. Oil prices, about $110 a barrel a year ago, are back down to earth. With the recession keeping business travelers home and leisure travelers demanding bargains, the old pricing models are out the window, said Rick Seaney, CEO of the online travel seller FareCompare.com.

"Airlines are creatures of habit," he said. "When they get skittish, they start discounting."

Current domestic airfares for Thanksgiving holiday travel average $327, down 22 percent from last year, says Bing Travel, the Microsoft travel site. Christmas and New Year's holiday domestic airfares average $353, down 17 percent from this time in 2008.

Planes will be full, and you'll still pay a premium on the most popular travel days. The average ticket price for prime-time Thanksgiving flying — leaving Wednesday before Turkey Day and returning the following Sunday — is $375, still $122 cheaper than last year.

Bargains are out there if you're flexible with your travel dates. Even if airlines exclude holiday travel for their fare sales, it can pay to dig beneath the fine print.

Southwest's current sale that ends Thursday lists Dec. 18 through Jan. 4 as blackout dates. But its Web site on Wednesday showed $81 one-way fares from Tampa to Chicago for most days leading up to Christmas. Return trips the following week were available for $114 to $154.

"It helps to play around with the dates," said Tom Parsons, CEO of BestFares.com.

So, when do you pull the trigger?

Last year, prices started high and dropped right before the holidays when tickets weren't moving, said Joel Grus, a Bing Travel "fareologist." He expects this year to follow a more typical pattern, with fares slowly rising as seats fill up.

Start shopping now to get an idea what's a cheap fare for your trip. Then move when someone advertises a fare at your price point, Seaney said.

"It's going to be a good season, pricewise," he said. "Shoot for under $300 coast to coast, under $250 for short haul. Then sit on the fence and see what happens."

Steve Huettel can be reached at huettel@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3384.