Friday, September 21, 2018
Business

Fueled by more people, Florida’s economic prospects look good over next 30 years

Florida’s economy should be in good shape 30 years from now. There will be bumps, including four to five recessions, if history is a guide. And not everyone will get an equal share of the prosperity.

But thanks largely to a steadily growing population, the state’s financial fortunes look rosy. By 2047, the state will be home to more than 29 million residents, up from about 21 million today.

"One of the big economic distinctions between Florida and states in the northern Rust Belt is our growing population," said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. "More people in a state’s economy by default means more economic activity."

PURCHASING POWER:If you live in this county, your earnings go further.

Snaith recently released his institute’s annual look at where Florida will be in 10, 20 and 30 years. By 2047, he forecast the state’s total economic output will more than quadruple in today’s dollars from about $1 trillion to just over $4 trillion. Retail sales and personal income will also rise significantly. Housing starts will tick up, too.

Some industries will do a lot better than others.

Snaith forecast construction jobs to jump from a little over 500,000 to more than 1.1 million, propelled by more demand for houses, condos and apartments.

The health sector will continue its nearly uninterrupted decades-long climb, adding another half a million jobs in the next 30 years. State and local governments will continue to add jobs, as will Florida’s large leisure and hospitality sector.

The information sector will continue to have ups and downs over the next decade as newspapers and magazines continue to struggle with how to find enough people to pay for their work. After that, Snaith predicts a quick expansion, pulled along by the sector’s high-tech components, including computer programmers and software developers.

CONSUMER: Following Simply Orange, Tropicana shrank the size of its orange juice containers.

The already massive professional and business services sector will more than double to over 3.1 million jobs. The forecast highlights the ongoing shift away from industries that make things and toward service providers, including professionals in science and technology.

The trend also shows up in the steadily declining number of jobs in manufacturing, a sector already dinged by automation and foreign competition. Snaith predicts the number of manufacturing jobs will tick up slightly in the next few years and then decline through 2047.

"Some of the recent policies of the Trump administration with regards to trade have given a boost to manufacturing," Snaith said. "But those won’t be enough to turn the longer term trends."

In 2047, tourism and its offshoots will still dominate, Snaith said. Other sectors will keep growing, which will continue to help diversify the state’s economy. But that progress could get obscured as tourism expands just as quickly.

"Things like retail and tourism are not going to suddenly shrivel up. They are the backbone of the economy," he said. "I have described tourism as the 600-pound gorilla of Florida’s economy that has become a 700-pound gorilla in the past seven or eight years."

Where will all these new people come from? Florida remains attractive to businesses and workers fleeing states with fewer prospects. Retiring baby boomers will continue to flood in. The state also benefits from its share of foreign immigration and a birth rate that exceeds its death rate.

RELATED: More business news

The influx will come with growing pains — economic, political and environmental. But whether or not you like the idea of more people, the spigot cannot easily be shut off or even slowed. And Tampa Bay should expect a bigger share of the next wave.

The already densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area is getting hemmed in by geography, much more so than the Interstate 4 corridor, Snaith said. The result will be relatively high economic growth for our area, including overall employment and per-capita income, compared to the state’s other metro areas.

"The I-4 corridor is really the bread basket for Florida in terms of growth rates going forward," Snaith said. "When you look at Tampa to Orlando, and all the way to Daytona Beach, there is a lot of room to grow in all directions in terms of physical space."

Snaith remains impressed by Florida’s turnaround since the Great Recessions, especially over the past five to seven years.

"It wasn’t that long ago that we were still mired in the aftermath of the recession," he said. "To see that recovery take root in the past five years, and the pace of growth accelerate as it has, was sort of phoenix-like."

Contact Graham Brink at [email protected] Follow @GrahamBrink.

Comments
Tampa General nurses record the last heartbeats of dying patients, making a family memory

Tampa General nurses record the last heartbeats of dying patients, making a family memory

TAMPA — As John Reisinger waited with family at Tampa General Hospital, grief settled in like a fog. So some of the details are hazy.But he remembers the moment when three women in white lab coats approached him.The day before, his niece, Jessica Rau...
Updated: 2 hours ago
Retro Fitness sets first of several area locations in Citrus Park

Retro Fitness sets first of several area locations in Citrus Park

In early fall, Retro Fitness will open a 17,000 square foot fitness facility in Citrus Park, and it plans for more Tampa Bay area locations.Founded in 2005, Retro Fitness has 153 clubs throughout the United States and is the official fitness center o...
Updated: 4 hours ago
Joe and Son's Olive Oils, a legacy Ybor business, finds new roots in Carrollwood

Joe and Son's Olive Oils, a legacy Ybor business, finds new roots in Carrollwood

Andrea Gebbia grew up in Carrollwood, and now she is bringing the family business to the neighborhood of her youth.In late fall, Joe and Son’s Olive Oils is slated to open a second location."I feel so blessed having the ability to grow my...
Updated: 4 hours ago
The guys who brought you Tampa’s Armature Works plan high-end offices next door, and they’ve already signed a lease with med-tech company AxoGen

The guys who brought you Tampa’s Armature Works plan high-end offices next door, and they’ve already signed a lease with med-tech company AxoGen

TAMPA — Coming soon from the developers who brought you the Armature Works: Heights Union, two high-end office buildings next door to the trendy food hall, event space and co-working complex overlooking the Hillsborough River.Developers said Friday t...
Updated: 4 hours ago
Chi Chop + Kung Fu Tea looks to succeed where others failed

Chi Chop + Kung Fu Tea looks to succeed where others failed

RIVEVIEW – Amy Lin knows that her newest Chi Chop + Kung Fu Tea store is in a location where previous businesses have not lasted.The short-lived Tap’s Brewhouse & Deli and even shorter-lived Top Shelf Sports Bar and Grill tried to r...
Updated: 4 hours ago
Walmart is teaming with a Seminole Heights chef to promote locally grown mushrooms

Walmart is teaming with a Seminole Heights chef to promote locally grown mushrooms

TAMPA — It might seem like an unlikely match from the outside: A distinguished chef with a restaurant known for inventive plates using produce shoppers can find at… Walmart?Walmart, the country’s largest grocer, is known for having a core consumer wh...
Updated: 5 hours ago
Federal loans open to Pinellas businesses struggling against Red Tide

Federal loans open to Pinellas businesses struggling against Red Tide

The U.S. Small Business Administration has extended its disaster loan program to include Pinellas and Pasco county businesses affected by Red Tide.Already, the Pinellas County Economic Development Office was taking applications for bridge loans to he...
Updated: 5 hours ago
Watch: A southern white rhinoceros calf just a week after being born at ZooTampa

Watch: A southern white rhinoceros calf just a week after being born at ZooTampa

TAMPA — A southern white rhinoceros gave birth to a calf at ZooTampa on Sept. 12, marking the sixth successful birth of the species in the zoo's history. In a news release, ZooTampa said southern white rhinoceroses are a nearly threatened spec...
Updated: 6 hours ago
Baggers, cashiers soon can grow beards at Publix

Baggers, cashiers soon can grow beards at Publix

ORLANDO — The faces of baggers, cashiers and stockers at a Florida-based grocery chain may look slightly different in the near future.That's because Publix said Friday that it would start allowing workers to grow beards and other facial hair b...
Updated: 8 hours ago
They spent $15,000 adding a driveway to their St. Pete House. Now the city says they can’t park on it

They spent $15,000 adding a driveway to their St. Pete House. Now the city says they can’t park on it

ST. PETERSBURG — One day in January, Dana Cremo was on her front porch hanging a vintage screen door when two city employees walked up. "You can’t park on your driveway," they said. "Why?" she asked. "Because somebody filed a complaint," they said. F...
Updated: 10 hours ago