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Florida unemployment stays flat in June amid hiring slowdown

 
Florida Gov. Rick Scott, shown here in Cleveland earlier this week to address the Republican National Convention, came to Tampa Friday morning to comment on the latest unemployment and job creation report.
[Associated Press]
Florida Gov. Rick Scott, shown here in Cleveland earlier this week to address the Republican National Convention, came to Tampa Friday morning to comment on the latest unemployment and job creation report. [Associated Press]
Published July 23, 2016

Florida's jobs recovery hit a speed bump last month.

The state's unemployment rate in June stayed at 4.7 percent, unchanged from May, as it added a relatively modest 9,800 jobs over the month, according to figures released Friday by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

The slowdown comes a month after Florida boasted adding 24,500 jobs during May, nearly three times more than any other state.

In Tampa Bay, the summer slump was even more dramatic, with unemployment jumping a half percentage point, from 4.1 to 4.6 percent.

Nearly every area county posted a significant jump, with Hillsborough rising from 4 to 4.5 percent; Pinellas from 3.9 to 4.3 percent; Pasco from 4.6 to 5.2 percent; Hernando from 5.4 to 6 percent; and Citrus from 6.1 to 6.8 percent.

Unlike state figures, county and metro area estimates are not seasonally adjusted for swings in hiring in categories such as agriculture and education, so they tend to fluctuate more dramatically month to month. Year over year, the bay area has added 43,400 jobs, second to Orlando among Florida metros.

Mekael Teshome, a PNC Financial economist who tracks Florida, cited concern that the state's workforce has shrunk for three months in a row even though 1,000 people a day are moving into Florida.

But that statistic plus the monthly slowdown wasn't enough to derail Teshome's overall bullish assessment for Florida and the bay area, in particular. Housing prices are rising steadily, the population is growing and even income is finally starting to pick up.

"As we look at the Tampa Bay region, I think we're really charging ahead," he said. "The unemployment rate is low, and we're seeing broad-based growth (over the year)."

Given the length of the recovery, Teshome echoes many economists in predicting a recession is inevitable at some point.

"Right now I'm not in the camp that it's imminent," he said. "This expansion still has legs. We have some imbalance for sure, but we don't have any bubbles I see that will cause the economy to overheat."

Statewide, the hottest industry has been professional and business services (up 48,400 jobs over the year), followed by education/health services and leisure and hospitality.

Gov. Rick Scott, in prepared remarks for a visit to Port Tampa Bay on Friday morning, glossed over the monthly slowdown in job creation. Instead, he touted total private sector jobs added in the first half of the year — 102,600 — and stressed that the state's unemployment rate is not just at a near nine-year low but remains better than the national jobless rate, which stood at 4.9 percent in June.

"Our annual job growth rate has outpaced the nation for more than 50 consecutive months, and since 2010, more than 1,127,000 Floridians have found new opportunities to get a job and provide for their families," Scott said in a statement.

Scott and Sen. Marco Rubio were in Tampa for the commission of two new cranes that will help the port accommodate more container ship traffic.

Contact Jeff Harrington at jharrington@tampabay.com. Follow @JeffMHarrington.