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Gains in home builder confidence, factory production prompt cautious optimism

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy looks more resilient after reports released Wednesday showed factories produced more goods in July and home builders grew more confident in the housing recovery.

At the same time, consumer prices stayed flat last month. Low inflation could boost consumers' spending and lift growth in the second half of the year.

Economists approached the mostly positive data with some caution. The economy remains weak after a sluggish spring. And a severe drought in the Midwest could send food prices surging later this year and crimp consumer spending.

Still, the gains were encouraging. And they followed other July reports that showed consumers stepped up retail spending and employers created the most jobs since February. Here's a roundup of Wednesday's reports:

• Factories made more cars, computers and airplanes last month, the Federal Reserve said. That helped drive industrial production, which includes output at factories, mines and utilities, up 0.6 percent in July from June, the fourth straight increase.

• Home builder confidence rose from 35 in July to 37 in August, a five-year high, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index. That's still well below 50, the dividing line between positive and negative sentiment about the housing market.

• Consumer prices were unchanged in July from June, the Labor Department said. A small drop in energy costs offset slightly higher food prices. The consumer price index hasn't increased since March, evidence that the weak economy is keeping inflation in check.

"The rising industrial production numbers, the home builders improving outlook, low consumer inflation and many of the other recent data indicate that economic conditions are actually getting better," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Factory output, the most important component of industrial production, rose 0.5 percent in July. It was the second straight monthly increase. The gain was driven by a 3.3 percent surge in output of motor vehicles and parts.

Factory production has risen 21.9 percent since its recession low in June 2009 and is just 1.7 percent below the pre-recession peak for factory output reached in April 2007.

Gains in home builder confidence, factory production prompt cautious optimism 08/15/12 [Last modified: Wednesday, August 15, 2012 11:40pm]
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