During the three decades he's been dissecting Florida's economic booms and busts, Mark Vitner hasn't been this bullish about the state's future for a very long time. Not since the 1990s.
Florida is not only growing again — but for a change, it's doing it the right way, said Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities. It's not relying on easy credit or the "overly aggressive" use of incentives to create jobs; it also isn't overly dependent on the in-state migration of retirees.
Rather, as it adds jobs at a pace nearly twice as fast as the rest of the country, Florida's resurgence has become more widespread. Beyond tourism, health care and retail jobs, higher-paying jobs in financial services, professional and business services, and even manufacturing are also growing.
"We've made tremendous strides in moving up the value chain," Vitner said Wednesday in discussing his latest Florida Economic Outlook. "It's a far different world today than it was 10 or 20 years ago, a far healthier mix of jobs and far more promising future."
Life sciences, an industry that started from scratch here not long ago, "is beginning to hit its stride," he said, and aerospace is on an upswing. Meanwhile, the region is no longer churning out just back-office, customer service jobs in financial services; investment banking and other higher-end financial operations are taking root.
Little-known fact: Remove the growth in tourism, hospitality and retail jobs, and Florida is still adding jobs as a faster pace than the nation as a whole.
One reason for the improvement, he said, is the pro-business climate, which is likely to continue as long as housing prices don't escalate too quickly.
"Florida has regained its position as one of the nation's best places to do business, with a relatively low cost of living and incredibly diverse and highly desirable quality of life," Vitner said in his report.
Bolstering his argument: The Tax Foundation's State Business Tax Climate Index recently ranked Florida as having the best business climate among the most-populous states, and fifth-best overall, trailing only Wyoming, South Dakota, Nevada and Alaska.
Vitner — who has studied Florida's economy for Wells Fargo and its predecessor banks, Wachovia and First Union — recognizes that the state is still saddled with some tough problems, some of them systemic.
Pay is still skewed lower overall, with the tourism industry pumping out low-wage hotel, retail and entertainment jobs, and retirees fueling a continued need for low-wage home health care aides. And too many people are working reduced hours or in part-time positions, and are unable to find full-time work.
It's difficult for many Floridians to move beyond entry-level-paying jobs, exacerbating income inequality and making it tough for young families to afford buying homes.
Residential construction remains half of what it was during Florida's heyday.
Still, the slow growth the past seven years "has actually worked to the state's advantage," Vitner said. It has allowed governments to catch up on needed infrastructure projects and to refocus economic development efforts to be less dependent on the inflow of new residents to keep growing.
The first time since the recession that Florida's economy grew faster than the country overall was 2013. This year — and beyond — promises to be even better, with Florida's gross domestic product, or economic output, growing by 3.9 percent in 2014 and by more than 4 percent in both 2015 and 2016, he forecasts.
"Following an unusually slow start, Florida's economic recovery now appears to be firmly on track," he said.
Strong gains in international trade, tourism, construction, and profession and technical services are all fueling the gains.
Despite the improvement on jobs, Florida is still a stunning 226,100 jobs below its pre-recession peak. Vitner explains that in one word: construction. The state is still a whopping 277,300 construction jobs shy of its previous high in 2006, during the building boom.
Contact Jeff Harrington at jharrington@tampabay.com or (813) 226-3434. Follow @JeffMHarrington.