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Letters: Readers comment on business news

 
Published Sept. 23, 2016

Inevitable recession Sept. 18

We need to start preparing for a downturn

I believe your article is, unfortunately, spot on.

We have clearly seen confidence and ambition related to a marginal bull run, following the deep trough we were in.

However, my own assessment is U.S. GDP growth trends are slowing. The second quarter was an anemic 1+ percent and realistically could have been a goose egg outside of adjustments.

Interest rates remain low — the 10-year Treasury is at 1.7 percent — driven in large part by the near-recessionary levels of output elsewhere in the world and a slowing Chinese economy.

Lastly, Fed Funds Futures show only a 59 percent "chance" of one interest rate increase in 2016. All are part of the "storm" offshore.

Another sign I see (which some criticize as counterintuitive) are high valuations. The 17-18 times 12-month trailing earnings puts us in the crosshairs with an anticipated recession.

The U.S. consumer is the only thing keeping us out of a recession, and we are now hearing of slowing auto and restaurant sales.

It's not a topic people like to talk about. But as your article states, "a storm is gathering." We cannot stop it, but we can prepare for it.

Allen R. Brinkman II, Tampa

(Brinkman is chairman, president and CEO of SunTrust Bank, Florida Division)

Inevitable recession Sept. 18

Article had nothing original

To put this on the front page is an embarrassment. Here is why:

There is nothing original in the article, only generalities that can be applied to any economic cycle.

To say a recession is certain to come to our area by 2019 is nonsense.

To say "and frankly we are due" is nonsense.

To live in the world of Mr. Trigaux is to live in a glass-half-empty world; woe is me.

His columns have a history of being short on originality.

Stay out of debt, live within your means, and stay positive is the recipe for successfully dealing with the ups and down of life. Relying on Mr. Trigaux for economic insight is not one of them.

Dick Powers, Tampa

Lowest paychecks in the U.S. Sept. 16

Income ranking can be misleading

While the U.S. Census reports Tampa Bay ranking dead last among the 25 largest metro areas, it's important to fully understand the metric that we are being ranked on.

Median household income is not a very good proxy for average wages, as it includes both earned and unearned income.

But most importantly, the concern with using household income is that the greater number of working residents in a single dwelling, the higher the household income will be.

Accordingly, metro areas like Tampa Bay (and other Florida metros) that have a disproportionately high percentage of elderly, single-person households on fixed incomes will almost always have depressed levels of median household income.

So while we should all be concerned with such rankings, we should not draw too many conclusions about the status of our regional workforce and its competitiveness based upon measures that can be influenced by factors that have little to do with it.

Jack Geller, Ph.D., University of Tampa