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Positive signs show growth may be on the rebound

Orders for heavy equipment, like this John Deere tractor, showed strong growth in December, a sign that manufacturing is picking up. Economists have lifted their estimates for growth in 2011’s fourth quarter.

Associated Press

Orders for heavy equipment, like this John Deere tractor, showed strong growth in December, a sign that manufacturing is picking up. Economists have lifted their estimates for growth in 2011’s fourth quarter.

WASHINGTON — Businesses are growing more confident in the economy, investing in more equipment and laying off fewer workers.

Government figures on manufacturing and unemployment claims released Thursday raised hopes on the eve of a report on how much the economy grew in the October-December quarter.

Still, 2011 ended up as the worst year on record for new home sales, a reminder that the economy has a long way to go.

"Business optimism seems to be picking up, which is critical to the growth and competitiveness of the U.S. economy over the long haul," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

Orders for manufactured goods expected to last at least three years rose 3 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. And demand for goods that indicate business investment plans hit an all-time high.

A tax break that expired in December for large equipment purchases may have helped boost orders. Still, many economists said most companies are likely buying equipment simply because business is improving.

Manufacturers "have a real need to ramp up their spending on capital improvements … because the economy is growing and industrial capacity has not kept up," said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

That growth was evident after Caterpillar said its fourth-quarter profit jumped 60 percent. And 3M, which makes everything from Post-It Notes to Scotch tape, said sales in its industrial and transportation unit rose 14 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase was driven by parts for cars and planes.

In December, orders for core capital goods rose to a record $68.9 billion. That's more than 45 percent higher than the recession low hit in April 2009.

"With big-ticket spending rising and the labor market firming, the economy is a lot better than some central bankers think," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

Companies are also laying off fewer workers, which has some economists optimistic about job growth in January.

Weekly applications for jobless claims rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000. But that followed a week in which they fell to near a four-year low. And the longer-term trend is pointing to a healthier job market.

The four-week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate. The nation has added at least 100,000 jobs for six straight months.

Growth likely accelerated in the final three months of the year to a 3 percent annual pace, according to a survey of economists by Factset. That would be an improvement over the 1.8 percent pace in July-September quarter, and a relief after seeing 0.9 percent growth in the first half of last year.

The Commerce Department will report the actual figure today.

Housing remains the weakest part of the economy. New home sales fell 2.2 percent last month, and total sales for 2011 were the lowest on records dating back to 1963.

Still, sales of new homes rose in the final quarter of 2011, supporting other signs of a slow turnaround that began at the end of the year.

"A sustained rise in new-home sales is imminent," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Home builders say so too, and they should know."

by the numbers

$68.9 billion December orders for core capital goods, a record, more than 45 percent higher than the recession low hit in April 2009.

377,500 Four-week average for applications for unemployment benefits, near the figure of 375,000, the number that tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

302,000 Approximate number of new homes sold last year, down from 323,000 in 2010 and the worst year on record dating to 1963.

Positive signs show growth may be on the rebound 01/26/12 [Last modified: Thursday, January 26, 2012 10:23pm]
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