National, state views of economy are divided

Economists are having a tough time figuring out how confident we are that the economy is improving based on two reports released Tuesday.

A national gauge of consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September, signaling that people are increasingly worried about job security and a continued economic slump. According to the New York-based Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index dipped slightly to 53.1 in September. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 57.

Meanwhile, in Florida, a separate barometer of consumer confidence statewide rose more than expected in September. The brisk three-point rise to 74 came on top of a 4-point increase in August.

"I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over, and we have avoided a complete meltdown," said Chris McCarty, who coordinates the Florida survey for the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

"Once again, they have surprised us with a higher-than-expected index."

Floridians were more optimistic in their perceptions of improved U.S. economic conditions, both over the next year and over the next five years. There also was a big bounce in perceptions that this is a good time to buy big-ticket items. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged.

The monthly telephone survey is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence as that year.

In sharp contrast to Florida's results, the Conference Board indicated pessimism was on the rise nationally.

The Consumer Confidence Index, which started to rebound earlier this year, has been bumpy since June as rising unemployment has caught up with shoppers.

A reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.

Economists watch consumer sentiment because spending on goods and services for consumers, including housing and health care, accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity by federal measures.

The Conference Board's Present Situation Index, which measures consumers' current assessment of the economy, declined to 22.7 from 25.4. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' outlook over the next six months, dipped to 73.3 from 73.8 last month.

"While not as pessimistic as earlier this year, consumers remain quite apprehensive about the short-term outlook and their incomes," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "With the holiday season quickly approaching, this is not very encouraging news."

The big concern is the job market. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters project job losses slowed in September. On average, they predict 180,000 jobs were lost this month, down from 216,000 in August. But Labor Department figures to be released Friday are projected to show unemployment ticking up to 9.8 percent in September from 9.7 percent in August. In Florida, unemployment was 10.7 percent in August.

Times staff writer Jeff Harrington contributed to this report.