If you're thinking about buying a home, now looks good

Dave Seidenberg works for Tampa-based luxury home builder Bayfair Properties. Like many builders, he's "struggling like crazy."

Another thing that makes him crazy is all the griping about how many months it will take for home prices to reach bottom.

Seidenberg was defiant during a phone chat this week: "There is no magic bottom."

Let's not misconstrue his message: Overall home prices still have room to sink. It might be 2009 before prices have enough ballast to steady themselves.

The Florida Association of Realtors says the local median sales price has fallen 25.3 percent since it topped out at $239,600 in June 2006. Now it's $178,900.

While Seidenberg is confident many homes already are scraping the price floor, the screeching sound isn't universal.

He points to one of his own models in Pasco County. It sold a few years ago for $499,000, rode a speculative tidal wave to $700,000 and beat a retreat this year to $499,000.

Lest you think his example is too self-serving, Seidenberg's commissioned some research. Contrary to popular opinion, financing a new home this year costs the same as financing such a home in pre-boom 2000.

In 2000, the median new home price was $172,427. If you bought that house at the then-average loan rate of 8.29 percent, the monthly mortgage payment would have come to $1,281.

Skip ahead to 2008. The median price of a new home is $216,000. If you paid that amount and borrowed at today's 5.97 percent interest rate, the monthly payment comes to $1,219.

I admit the scenario requires some creative omissions. Buyers are going for smaller homes this year. The mortgage payment might be the same, but the square footage probably isn't.

Let's not forget taxes and insurance, either. Taxes are higher because the sales price is higher. And the pre-Hurricane Charlie glory days of property insurance for a few hundred bucks are gone with the wind.

But Seidenberg's not done pleading his case. He says hiring contractors is as cheap as it has been for eight to 10 years. That translates to price concessions. And don't expect mortgage rates to hide in the basement. In the past 37 years, going back to April 1971, they've been this low only 23 times in 444 months.

As we enter the season of stucco and shingle, expect plenty of wooing from builders: Buy now or forever hold your peace.

Comments on this article

by Roberta	May 4, 2008 11:46 AM
If you are not buying a house to flip,wait a while, but if you are buying a HOME for the long haul, now is the time. A home should never be an investment but just a lovely place to live.

by Steve T	May 4, 2008 11:45 AM
We are close to the bottom. 20 years ago I bought a luxury home in Albany, NY. It cost around $100 a square foot. Recently I bought a luxury home in Pasco - for about $120 a square foot. And taxes here are less than Albany 20 years ago.

by Mike	May 4, 2008 11:42 AM
The time to buy is when you find a comfortable, secure, and well maintained home that not only will meet your needs, but fall well wihin you budget. Sellers: The people who like your house, can't afford it; the people who can afford it, don

by Elisabeth	May 3, 2008 12:57 PM
I'm old enough to remember the "bargain" of 13% on mortgages. Those who hold out for lower prices with low interest rates are living in a dream. Inflation is hitting and rates will have to rise. Check past cycles and compare.

by Robert	May 2, 2008 10:12 PM
Just recently I was looking at a house that I could buy for under $200,000. The price has been drastically reduced - the problem was that the property taxes were nearly $5000. No deal

by Not Fall'n For It	May 2, 2008 10:12 PM
Now is the time? Perhaps. Read the fine print because these stinkers will try it again and again and again.

by Tom	May 2, 2008 10:09 PM
I bet that everyone posting a positive comment is a realator.

by Juno	May 2, 2008 10:07 PM
Realtors love these articles, any thing to get you to buy. I would love to buy now but the prices are still too inflated. I've been watching the condo market and am finally seeing these bozos drop their prices by 20k. Another 20k drop is nece

by FRANKIE	May 2, 2008 10:07 PM
BIASED REPORTING JUST LOOK AT HOW MANY TIMES "KAY " HAS A COMMENT. IS SHE YOUR AUNT THAT IS A REALTOR???KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK IF THAT IS WHAT YOU WANT TO CALL IT. LOL LOL

by frankie	May 2, 2008 10:06 PM
BRING BACK THE GOOD OLD DAYS WHEN NEWSPAPERS REPORTED THE NEWS OBJECTIVELY. THERE IS TOO MUCH COLUSION BETWEEN BUSINESS AND NEWSPAPERS. THE BIASED REPORTING CONTINUES AND YOUR CIRCULATION NUMBERS FALL TO NEW LOWS!!!!!

by Dave	May 2, 2008 10:04 PM
You know what they say about "Lies and Statistics". I think Mr. Seidenberg needs to take a remedial math course.

by Mary	May 2, 2008 10:04 PM
Kay, you never get more for your money while renting. You have no asset, no equity, no reportable credit history. You might think it's a bargain, but it's not.

by bob	May 2, 2008 10:04 PM
Now is a great time to buy , if you think that prices may still drop base your offer on that. markets like this is where you make money, & they dont come around that often. buy when prices start to increase?? owners will hold out for a better pri

by Chris	May 2, 2008 10:04 PM
News Flash People, Interest rates are back down to where rates won't be resetting to crazy levels like originally feared. Foreclosures are already letting up, thanks to banks renegotiating loan rates and payments that should never have been mad

by David	May 2, 2008 10:02 PM
Why by his own admission that prices may continue to drop into 2009, and I think much longer, would you buy now? If a hurricane hits this year imagine how bad things will get in the housing market. Also a lot of data interpreted to his benefit.

by Bill	May 2, 2008 10:01 PM
There will never be a better time to buy and brand new home! But remember, choose wisely the quality, service, and price you expect. Pick any 2 you never get all 3.

by Reed	May 2, 2008 10:00 PM
Finally some positive press from the media! To clear up one thing James,in fact the median size home today is 2200 vs 2000 in 2000. So actually homes are larger today than 2000.

by Julie	May 2, 2008 10:00 PM
Brilliantly worded! numbers never lie! Being a homeowner will always be the american dream!!

by Kimberly	May 2, 2008 10:00 PM
Way to go David! Finally someone to put some real understanding into the up side of this market. With homes back to Y2K pricing, and interest this low, why not buy now? Even with a 20% loss on your current home, you're still ahead. Do th

by Ashton	May 2, 2008 9:59 PM
I am so glad someone in the press is taking a realistic view of this housing market. Buying a home is no longer a get rich quick scheme. Buying a home is once again just a great long term investment that you get to enjoy living in!

by Teri	May 2, 2008 9:59 PM
Seriously, payments are less today than in 2000 for the same price range home? Why doesn't your paper continue with a series on home ownership, benefits, costs, and reaching the dream of owning ones own home?

by Alex R	May 2, 2008 9:59 PM
Its a great time to be a buyer! Wish the same could be said for us sellers! Take advantage.

by Ed	May 2, 2008 9:55 PM
Finally, a positive housing market story.

by FixedIncome	May 2, 2008 9:54 PM
I wouldn't be too hasty to buy. Home prices have an additional 20-30% to fall until they are in line with incomes. Who wrote this, a Realtor?

by Kim	May 2, 2008 9:51 PM
The only way home prices are going to go down is when the bulders are choking or maybe dead. We need low pricing homes. Back to $90.000.

by frankie	May 2, 2008 9:50 PM
It is always a good time to buy a home. As a former realtor "Commission,Commission,Commission is all agents think about. If the home sells for 200k or 1 mil agents still make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.Homes got way over priced now the market is adjusting

by Kenneth	May 2, 2008 9:50 PM
I've been sorta browsing the realty online and it doesn't seem like used home prices have dropped at all. Seems like people would rather let it sit on the market forever than sell for less than they think they deserve. New homes may be di

by Mikes	May 2, 2008 2:28 PM
I agree that calling the bottom is as difficult as calling the top. However, more and more supply will be arriving as more 'owners' walk away from their resetting 'mortgages' where they owe more on their home than the home can sel

by Dale	May 2, 2008 2:26 PM
I saw the same research that was reported at a recent seminar and was shocked at how much the mortgage rates and fees influenced the cost of a home. Looks like now is a good time for buyers to get a steal of a deal on both price and mortgage rates.

by Kay	May 2, 2008 2:22 PM
Finally...... it's about time someone printed some common sense about the much debated housing issue. The Quote "He who Hesitates is Lost" is something to consider right now if you are even thinking about purchasing a home.

by Kay	May 2, 2008 2:19 PM
Naw, I disagree. In 2005, prices were already inflated. We need to get back to 2004 prices (or less) before I'm willing to buy. I'm getting more for less money in my rental apartment right now.

by Jay	May 2, 2008 2:13 PM
Just wait till you try and sell your old house and get hit with the new tax and insurance bill.

by mumbles	May 2, 2008 2:13 PM
The area's population is projected to increase 52% over the next two decades. Even today's high prices will look like the bargains you missed out on if you don't buy.

by sue	May 2, 2008 2:12 PM
Realtors and builders will always say "now is the time to buy", they have a conflict of interests. The time to buy is when you see prices starting to increase.

by Wes	May 2, 2008 2:09 PM
Seidenberg is just trying to make his mortgage payment too. It's too bad you're letting him use your paper as a bully pulpit for his wishful thinking. Anyone who buys today catches a falling knife. Bottom in Oct. 2009.