Predictions of prosperity for bay area housing market

Hold on to that house. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, says it will be worth at least 20 percent more.

But you'll have to wait until 2013.

In a presentation Wednesday to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, Yun predicted the Tampa Bay area housing market will revive by next year and resume appreciating at a modest pace.

"By five years from now, comfortably, things will be much better," Yun reassured more than 100 association members in the crowd.

Yun was less optimistic in his short-term prognosis. His biggest fear is that the market will overcorrect based on misplaced pessimism. That could set off a vicious cycle of postponed home purchases, falling prices and rising foreclosures.

He praised the government's confidence-raising measures: the economic stimulus checks going out this month, the possibility of a tax credit for first-time home buyers and continued low interest rates.

"The tax credit will guarantee the housing market won't overshoot downward," Yun said.

Purged of excess speculation and funny money loans, Tampa area real estate could become increasingly attractive to wealthier retirees and foreigners. Homes could eventually attract premium prices obtained in places like San Francisco, Yun said.

"There will be a tipping point where Tampa becomes a superstar city," he said.

Appointed the association's chief economist a year ago, Yun has faced skepticism in the past about his guesswork. During a visit to Tampa last June, he foresaw a "sonic boom" in home sales if the Legislature lowered property insurance rates. Rates went down a bit, but the region is still waiting for the boom.

Yun said his role at the national association is to promote positive trends as long as the information is factual. Wednesday's slide show was well appreciated by the Tampa association's membership.

With local home sales off by more than half since the 2005 peak, Realtors were grateful for the bit of good news. They thanked Yun with a warm ovation.

"We've been doing it for 100 years. We're going to be doing it another 100 years," said Deborah Farmer, president of the Tampa association. "Because Realtors rock!"

James Thorner can be reached at thorner@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3313.