Buyers stay away as home prices overcorrect

You're approaching your destination along the interstate. You have a choice of three exits to reach the city.

You skip the first two exits, confident the third is the most convenient. But as you take your eyes off the road to consult a map, the final exit slips away in the rear-view mirror.

An increasing number of economists are drawing similar conclusions about the prospects of a housing market recovery.

They're using words like "overshoot downward" or "overcorrect." What they mean is that potential home buyers, glum where they once were giddy, are content to be sideline sitters.

Maybe they want to wring every cent from home sellers. Maybe they're content to rent. The effect is the same: The recovery is postponed, less for reasons of supply and demand and more for reasons of mass psychology.

There are good reasons to house hunt. Tampa's median home price has plunged 26 percent from the peak in June 2006. Our median-priced home of about $170,000 is roughly three times local family income. Such a ratio is financially sound.

Those numbers come from the Florida Association of Realtors. Want a second opinion? The S&P/Case Shiller home index says prices have fallen 23 percent from a peak in July 2006. Some of the most bleak prognosticators predict a home price trough 30 percent below peak. We're most of the way there.

On the downside, recession fears sap buyer confidence and make renting more appealing. Though mortgage rates are low, banks are tight with terms.

You can deflate bubbles too much. Markets aren't always rational. While they hash things out well in the long run, in the short run they're often candidates for the funny farm.