The grocery store market in Florida seems as crowded as the line for a Publix sub at lunch time.
The giants like Publix and Walmart are still battling it out for the every day shopper, while the organic enthusiasts have Fresh Market and Whole Foods. Cult favorite Trader Joe's made a big splash when it first entered Florida in 2012 and has been expanding ever since.
Then there's the speciality players like wholesale clubs (Sam's, Costco and BJ's,) and bare bones discounters (Aldi, Save-a-lot). Even Winn Dixie is still with us.
Nevertheless, new upstarts think there's room for them, and their arrival will give shoppers even more variety. So don't be surprised to see Sprouts Farmers Market, Lucky's Market and Earth Fare coming to Tampa Bay soon.
"There are so many brands trying to compete," said Chuck Taylor senior vice president at Madison Marquette and the Florida director of the International Council of Shopping Centers. "It's definitely a war, and it's just starting."
So why do these chains think there's room for them?
For one, they see an opportunity to target high income earners who covet groceries that are fresh, local and organic.
"Our competition came in to Florida and have done very well," said Ted Frumkin, Sprouts' chief development officer. "We've noticed that, and also think that Florida has the middle- to upper-income consumers who generally like our brand."
Sprouts, a Phoenix-based organic grocer that bills itself as an affordable option for the healthy-minded shopper, will open its first Florida stores in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Orlando soon. And when it does, it will open up a lot of stores pretty fast, Frumkin said.
"We went in to Atlanta where no one knew who we were and opened up four stores right away," he said. "And next year, we want to open four more."
The way we shop is changing too. Many of us make more frequent trips to multiple stores.
"In the old days, you spent one whole day stocking up on everything you needed at 'the' grocery store," Taylor said. "Now, you go to Costco for your bulk items and Publix for the essentials. Then you go to Whole Foods for the produce and the Fresh Market for the prepared meals."
But the entry of so many grocery stores means there may be casualties. There are only so many people who want Trader Joe's turkey "meatloaf" muffins or organic flax milk and "83 percent organic" triple french milled soap at Whole Foods.
The Whole Foods shopper is clearly different from a Winn-Dixie or even a Save-A-Lot shopper. Each brand fills a niche in Florida, said Andrew Carlson, vice president of retail brokerage with the commercial real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle, in Tampa. Which is why others, from Aldi to Walmart's new Neighborhood Market concept, are popping up in neighborhoods in Tampa Bay and beyond.
"But at what point do we call it saturation?" Carlson said. The overall population is growing steadily in Florida, but "there are only so many mouths to feed," he said. "And one day the supply will be more than the demand."
Lucky's Market, which has a tagline of "organic for the 99 percent," opened its first Florida store in Gainesville in January. And more are coming — to Coral Springs, Naples and Plantation soon. The small stores have their own liquor store and are known for high quality organic produce that is often locally sourced.
Earth Fare, another chain known for its healthy foods, opened in Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Gainesville. Customers can bring in their own jars to fill up on bulk items, like cereal and nuts. The stores don't sell products that use high fructose corn syrup.
Even Whole Foods is trying to get in on the "health foods for less" idea with a new smaller store format called Whole Foods 365, which will offer food for discount prices to tech savvy millennials. Some stores might have pubs inside, like some of the full service Whole Foods stores do. No stores are slated to open in Florida just yet.
"The organic, health foods store is the fastest growing segment in grocery right now," said Jim Sud, the executive vice president of growth and business development with Whole Foods Market. "Everyone is trying to figure out how to do it better than we do."
More choices may be good for consumers, but what about Publix? The Lakeland-based company won the hearts of Floridians in the 1950s and has been the most popular place to shop ever since.
Shoppers won't stop buying from Publix, Taylor said. But they're spreading their money over different stores now, which means they're spending less at Publix.
"Publix has been king in Florida for a long time," Taylor said. "But they've never had this many other stores to compete with before."
Contact Justine Griffin at jgriffin@tampabay.com or (727) 893-8467. Follow @SunBizGriffin.