Make us your home page

Slow recovery will pick up pace by 2012, UCF economist says

Impatient with the climb out of Florida's economic sinkhole? Take a deep breath, because the recovery theme for next year is "slow," according to a forecast from the University of Central Florida.

But the pace will pick up as 2011 gives way to 2012, economist Sean Snaith said.

There are promising signs for Tampa Bay in the quarterly report released Tuesday by the university's Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Among a dozen Florida metro areas, it's expected to show the second-highest employment growth, behind Orlando, and economic output, behind Miami.

Plus it'll have stronger-than-statewide growth through 2013 in Florida's hottest sector — professional and business services, expected to expand 8.1 percent a year in the bay area.

Other highlights from the 2010-13 forecast:

• Real gross state product will actually expand after two years of contraction: 3 percent in 2010, 2.6 percent in 2011, 4 percent in 2012 and 4.8 percent in 2013.

• Real personal income growth will turn positive in 2010. From 2011 to 2013, personal income growth will average 3.3 percent and will peak at 4.4 percent in 2013.

• Stubbornly high joblessness won't fall below 10 percent until the first quarter of 2013. It may be 2020 before we see Florida unemployment fall below 6 percent again. Still, employment in the Tampa Bay area is expected to grow 2.2 percent a year.

• Florida payrolls won't recover by 2013 — it'll be the first quarter of 2014 before they return to prerecession levels. Growth year over year is expected to average 1.9 percent in 2011, 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013.

• There will be no V-shaped recovery for housing in Florida, but a long, slow climb starting in mid 2011. The good news: The state's housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009.

Where Florida will grow

Hot spots through 2013:

. Professional and business services:

7.5 percent

. Trade, transportation and utilities:

2.6 percent

. Education and health services: 2.6 percent

. Manufacturing: 0.9 percent

. Leisure and hospitality: 0.9 percent

Source: Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Slow recovery will pick up pace by 2012, UCF economist says 12/21/10 [Last modified: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 6:36am]
Photo reprints | Article reprints

© 2017 Tampa Bay Times


Join the discussion: Click to view comments, add yours

  1. Black entrepreneur says city stiffing him on project after he endorsed Rick Baker


    ST. PETERSBURG — A prominent African-American resident says his endorsement of mayoral candidate Rick Baker has led city officials to freeze him out of a major construction project along the historic "Deuces" stretch of 22nd Street S.

  2. Sen. Nelson urges FEMA to examine high number of denied flood claims


    Sen. Bill Nelson urged FEMA on Tuesday to ensure fairness, proper oversight and transparency in processing Hurricane Irma aid following a report by the Palm Beach Post that 90 percent of Irma claims under the National Flood Insurance Program had been denied.

    Sen. Bill Nelson is calling for FEMA to ensure the flood claims process post-Hurricane Irma is fair and ethical following reports that 90 percent of claims under the National Flood Insurance Program were denied. | [Times file photo]
  3. Amazon expands in Tampa with Pop-Up shop in International Plaza


    TAMPA — A new retailer known largely for its online presence has popped up at International Plaza and Bay Street.

    Shoppers walk past the new Amazon kiosk Tuesday at the International Plaza in Tampa. The kiosk, which opened last month, offers shoppers an opportunity to touch and play with some of the products that Amazon offers.
[CHRIS URSO   |   Times]

  4. Study: Florida has fourth-most competitive tax code


    Florida's tax code is the fourth most competitive in the country, according to a study released Tuesday by nonprofit group Tax Foundation.

    Florida has the fourth-most competitive tax code, a study by the Tax Foundation said. Pictured is  Riley Holmes, III, H&R Block tax specialist, helping a client with their tax return in April. | [SCOTT KEELER, Times]
  5. Trigaux: On new Forbes 400 list of U.S. billionaires, 35 now call Florida their home

    Personal Finance

    The latest Forbes 400 richest people in America was unveiled Tuesday, with 35 billionaires on that list calling Florida home. That's actually down from 40 Florida billionaires listed last year when a full 10 percent listed declared they were Floridians by residence.

    Edward DeBartolo, Jr., shopping center developer and  former San Francisco 49ers Owner, posed with his bronze bust last year during the NFL Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony in Canton, Ohio. DeBartolo remains the wealthiest person in Tampa Bay according to the Forbes 400 list released Tuesday. 
[Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images]