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Slow recovery will pick up pace by 2012, UCF economist says

Impatient with the climb out of Florida's economic sinkhole? Take a deep breath, because the recovery theme for next year is "slow," according to a forecast from the University of Central Florida.

But the pace will pick up as 2011 gives way to 2012, economist Sean Snaith said.

There are promising signs for Tampa Bay in the quarterly report released Tuesday by the university's Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Among a dozen Florida metro areas, it's expected to show the second-highest employment growth, behind Orlando, and economic output, behind Miami.

Plus it'll have stronger-than-statewide growth through 2013 in Florida's hottest sector — professional and business services, expected to expand 8.1 percent a year in the bay area.

Other highlights from the 2010-13 forecast:

• Real gross state product will actually expand after two years of contraction: 3 percent in 2010, 2.6 percent in 2011, 4 percent in 2012 and 4.8 percent in 2013.

• Real personal income growth will turn positive in 2010. From 2011 to 2013, personal income growth will average 3.3 percent and will peak at 4.4 percent in 2013.

• Stubbornly high joblessness won't fall below 10 percent until the first quarter of 2013. It may be 2020 before we see Florida unemployment fall below 6 percent again. Still, employment in the Tampa Bay area is expected to grow 2.2 percent a year.

• Florida payrolls won't recover by 2013 — it'll be the first quarter of 2014 before they return to prerecession levels. Growth year over year is expected to average 1.9 percent in 2011, 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013.

• There will be no V-shaped recovery for housing in Florida, but a long, slow climb starting in mid 2011. The good news: The state's housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009.

Where Florida will grow

Hot spots through 2013:

. Professional and business services:

7.5 percent

. Trade, transportation and utilities:

2.6 percent

. Education and health services: 2.6 percent

. Manufacturing: 0.9 percent

. Leisure and hospitality: 0.9 percent

Source: Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Slow recovery will pick up pace by 2012, UCF economist says 12/21/10 [Last modified: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 6:36am]
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