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2% growth won't cut unemployment, experts say

WASHINGTON — An economy growing 2 percent a year might be tolerable in normal times. Today, it's a near-disaster.

A growth rate of 5 percent or higher is needed to put a major dent in the nation's 9.6 percent unemployment rate. Two reasons why that's unlikely well into next year and maybe beyond:

• Construction — both residential and commercial — collapsed last year. And it isn't expected to regain its strength for years. Typically after recessions end, construction booms and powers a new economic expansion.

• The recession that began in December 2007, after the housing bubble burst, became the Great Recession once the financial crisis erupted in September 2008. Economic recoveries that follow a financial crisis are typically sluggish. Banks usually take years to resume lending normally.

"To really get 'Morning in America' and get people feeling like jobs are really coming back, I would want to see something close to 5 percent," annual economic growth, says economist Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute, referring to the iconic 1984 Reagan re-election ad.

That isn't likely to happen soon. Macroeconomic Advisers doesn't expect the labor market to recover all the lost jobs until at least 2013. Other economists say it could be 2018 or longer.

The government reported Friday that the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced, grew at an annual rate of 2 percent from July through September. Economists say it takes GDP growth of 3 percent a year just to keep the unemployment rate from rising as more Americans reach working age and immigrants enter the country. It would take 2 additional percentage points of growth for a year to reduce the unemployment rate by 1 point.

Recoveries from deep recessions are usually robust. Once the recession of 1981-82 ended, the economy boomed in 1983 and 1984. In one stretch, GDP grew at an annual rate of 8 percent or more for four straight quarters. The economy generated 3.5 million jobs in 1983 and 3.9 million in 1984. The unemployment rate fell by a third in two years, from 10.8 percent to 7.2 percent.

By contrast, since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has lost a net 439,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was 9.5 percent in June last year. Now, it's 9.6 percent.

Unlike in previous recessions, cutting interest rates is no longer a valid option this time. The financial crisis was so severe in fall 2008 that the Fed slashed short-term rates to zero by December to prevent another depression.

Long-term rates have fallen sharply, too. Today, consumers and businesses are unable or unwilling to take on more debt, and many banks are reluctant to lend. And the housing market, normally a driver of job growth, is still reeling. The National Association of Home Builders expects builders to put up 605,000 houses and apartments this year. That's down more than 70 percent from the 2.1 million in 2005 at the peak of the housing boom.

BY THE NUMBERS

2 percent Amount that the nation's

gross domestic product

grew at an annual rate from July through September.

3 percent Amount that economists

say GDP growth must be

to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

9.6 percent Unemployment rate for the United States in September.

2% growth won't cut unemployment, experts say 11/01/10 [Last modified: Monday, November 1, 2010 8:26pm]
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