Charlie Crist, acknowledged as '08 game changer, is seen at risk in Senate primary

Did Gov. Charlie Crist determine the leader of Free World in 2008?

It's really not that crazy a notion given the importance of Crist's surprise endorsement of John McCain on the eve of Florida's presidential primary. And as journalists John Heilemann and Mark Halperin note in their bestseller Game Change, Crist welshed on his earlier plan to endorse Rudy Giuliani, who based his entire campaign on winning Florida.

"Without (Crist's) support, Giuliani would not have pursued the strategy he did, and in the end without the governor's support for McCain it's quite possible Mitt Romney would have won your primary and become the nominee," Halperin, Time magazine's political analyst, says in a Political Connections interview airing today on Bay News 9.

Crist did wind up among those widely talked about as a vice presidential finalist for McCain, but New York magazine's Heilemann said the McCain campaign "not very seriously" considered Florida's then-super popular governor.

"His name was on the list, (but) he was not given anything like the kind of consideration some of the others were," Heilemann says in the interview airing today at 11 a.m. and 8 p.m. "The truth is the McCain campaign knew they needed a much more dramatic pick than that to win."

These two reporters help shape Beltway conventional wisdom more than most, so it's interesting to hear their take on Florida's Republican senate primary. Both think Crist is more likely to lose the Republican Senate nomination to former House Speaker Marco Rubio.

"He is fighting an uphill struggle. All the money in the world, all the tactics in the world aren't going to change (that)," Halperin said. "I think he needs to reach deep down and figure out why he's in this race, what separates him from Rubio and the other candidates … and make that case to the Florida voters. He cannot rely on what he's done in the past or the office he holds now."

Rubio's view of Democrats

"Republicans expand government because they want people to like them and vote for them. Democrats do it because they fundamentally don't believe in the free enterprise system," Rubio told more than 200 people Saturday at a Christian Coalition gathering Saturday at Northside Christian School in Pinellas County, explaining that both parties have been guilty of excessive spending.

LeMieux's pals

Interim Sen. George LeMieux collected $60,000 in contributions for his political action committee, a new disclosure report shows. Big checks came from well-known Florida lobbyist Ron Book, health care interests and CSX, which is involved in the SunRail commuter rail project that LeMieux and Crist championed.

LeMieux, in turn, contributed $19,200 to political candidates and committees — including $2,400 to Crist's Senate campaign.

NASCAR voters

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek has found a way to stress his Joe Sixpack cred: sponsoring a NASCAR race car at the NASCAR Nationwide Series Race in Daytona Beach on Saturday.

Chasing dollars

Crist may be stressing his day job lately over his Senate campaign, but he's still making time to raise money out of state. He has a Feb. 22 fundraiser scheduled in Washington and a Feb. 23 fundraiser in Philadelphia.

Rubio on Feb. 24 will be raising money at the New York City home of hedge fund investor Paul Singer, who has given millions to conservative causes.

Headliners

Coming soon to the Interstate 4 corridor: Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., headlines the Hillsborough GOP's annual Lincoln Day dinner March 6, and Sarah Palin hits Orange County's on March 12.

Alex Leary contributed to this week's Buzz. Adam Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com.