RIVERVIEW — The average sales price of existing homes in Hillsborough County dropped 9 percent in the first four months of this year, according to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors.
For builders, the price slide was even more abrupt: The average sales price of new homes dropped 25 percent over those four months, according to Rose Residential Reports, although publisher Marvin Rose said builders' moves toward smaller houses influenced that.
In eastern Hillsborough County, the news was almost universally grim for sellers: The selling prices of homes dropped in nine out of 10 areas during the first three months of the year, an analysis of county property records shows. The one small bright spot, by a hair, was the Brandon area, where the median sale price of $210,000 was up 1 percent over the same period in 2007.
Prices in the Sun City Center/Wimauma area fell just 4.5 percent, compared to 14 percent in Lithia/FishHawk and 13.8 percent in Riverview. Countywide, the median price fell 6.7 percent to $210,000.
So here's the Big Question in real estate: Where's the bottom? Where's the price point that will lure thousands of balking buyers into action?
It's at hand, real estate professionals say.
"We're already in a recovery mode in Tampa," said Deborah Farmer, president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors.
Vickie Levings might disagree. "We probably ended up looking at over 30 homes," said Levings, who in April bought a home northeast of Tampa with her husband, Jerry. "Maybe two times we saw somebody looking at or leaving another house."
The Levingses' real estate agent told them she was lucky to bring one customer a month to a house for sale.
Late last summer, builders finally slowed their work to the point where they were building fewer houses than they were selling, Rose said.
"The 21/2-year-old inventory has been absorbed," he said.
Not so among sellers of existing houses. The number of those on the market in the Tampa area rose last year past 20,000 and has hovered there since.
If housing is not at the bottom, then the falling prices mean it's heading there faster.
Sales have risen in communities where prices have plunged.
Last month, the Florida Association of Realtors reported that prices in Fort Myers were 29 percent lower than a year earlier. Sales were 41 percent higher. In Fort Pierce, where prices had dropped 34 percent in a year, sales had risen 34 percent.
But experts predict that any substantial recovery won't happen until next year.
"To be honest, I see this going on for a good while yet," said Burt Lancaster, a broker at Century 21 Fred McCay Realty in Brandon.
In Tampa, more than most metropolitan areas in Florida, the home building industry has been fueled over the years by an expanding economy and people moving here for new jobs, says Tony Polito, Tampa Bay director of Metrostudy, a housing tracking and consulting company.
"The problem is, the 10-year expectation for Tampa was annual job growth of nearly 25,000 new jobs," Polito wrote in Metrostudy's first-quarter report. "The actual annual growth was revised to a loss of 17,300 jobs."
The Levingses came to Florida for Vickie Levings' new job as a credit manager. They left a healthier economy in Utah, where they sold their house for $6,000 below their asking price.
"The market had slowed down, but nothing like this," said Jerry Levings.
Yet they see activity at the open house down the street. On a recent weekend, Vickie Levings said, "I saw five different families, and that was just when I happened to notice."
Farmer, the Realtors' president, also has noted a change. "Builders are telling me they had more traffic in the last month than they had all of last year," she said.
Farmer predicted a further boost, thanks to Amendment 1, which lets homeowners transfer their Save Our Homes property tax savings from one house to another.
"I think the impact of that is going to be fairly substantial in the next couple of months," Farmer said.
Eric Topp, who bought a house in New Tampa in April, thinks the market's bottom will require a quartet of changes:
• Sellers will realize they'll have to accept a lower price than they held out for.
• Buyers waiting for the bottom will decide it's here.
• Interest rates will begin nudging upward.
• Mortgage lenders will relax some of the tight restrictions they imposed in the past two years.
The Topps were similarly analytical when they decided to move from State College, Pa. They found two similar houses and initially offered $405,000 for their second choice, Topp said. The counteroffer was $430,000.
Then they turned to their first choice, priced at $680,000. "It was a corporate relo that had sat empty for two years," Topp said.
They offered $415,000, plus an argument: If you don't sell at this price, we will buy the twin house nearby and instantly reset the market price for your house.
It worked, Topp said. "They responded the same day."
Staff writer Catherine E. Shoichet contributed to this report. Bill Coats can be reached at (813) 269-5309 or coats@sptimes.com.
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